Paladin Energy sinks as FY2026 guidance underwhelms

[Redator]

Shares of Paladin Energy (ASX, TSX: PDN) plummeted on Wednesday after delivering an underwhelming uranium production guidance for the 2026 financial year despite reporting its best operating quarter.

The Australian miner, which operates the Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia, produced 993,843 lb. of uranium oxides (U₃O₈) for three months ended June 30, representing a 33% rise over the third quarter and its best operating performance in fiscal 2025. This brings its annual production to just over 3 million lb.

Since declaring commercial production at Langer Heinrich in spring 2024, the company had initially forecasted production of between 4-4.5 million lb. U₃O₈ for the current fiscal year. However, it revised down the target to 3.6 million lb. in late 2024, and then scrapped the guidance entirely as severe weather conditions impacted its operations. Paladin has since been hit with class action lawsuits over its uranium forecasts.

Despite the production rise in Q4, the company realized the lowest price for its yellowcake of all quarters at $55.6/lb., versus the yearly average of $65.7 and $69.9 the previous quarter.

Guidance for 2026

For the 2026 fiscal year, Paladin has set a production guidance of 4-4.4 million lb. U₃O₈, similar to the initial guidance set last year. The production costs are pegged at $44-48/lb., higher than the $40 average cost realized in fiscal 2025.

The guidance, according to Paladin’s management, reflects unexpected increases in mining-related expenditures, alongside variability in ore grades from stockpiled material at Langer Heinrich, especially during the first half of the year.

Investors reacted negatively to the production and cost guidance figures, as Paladin closed the Australian market down 11.2%. In Toronto, its stock also tanked, down 9.1% in the afternoon with a market capitalization of C$2.6 billion.

A report by the West Australian also pointed to the heavy short interest in the company’s ASX-listed shares, with short sellers controlling about 16.8% of the shares.