Pump-fake from the US Dollar — North American Mid-Week Market Update

[Redator]

One of the themes that had driven markets since the beginning of the month was the US Dollar recovering some strength which marked some tops and bottoms for many Currency pairs.

Starting the 1st of July and amplified by a streak of positive data, the Greenback saw its heavy-selling positioning reverse largely.

Particularly after the NFP report and the July CPI, most flows surrounded a re-shifting of funds back towards the US which notably propelled the Nasdaq and S&P 500 through multiple all-time highs.

This USD strength seems to have been just a temporary retracement however, with the Dollar Index having sold off close to two handles from its Thursday swing high (98.50 highs, currently around 97.20) – That move had much more influence in Forex than stocks.

As a matter of fact, the Dow Jones is flying and trying to catch up to its peers. The industrial-focused index just breached the 45,000 Key landmark and is coming closer to its all-time highs. You can take a look at an in-depth analysis of the Index right here:

Read More: Dow Jones rebalancing continues after US-Japan Trade Deal

Since the last mid-week report, there hasn't been much in terms economic data for either the US or Canada except for a strong beat in US Retail Sales last Thursday (0.6% vs 0.1% expected) which further boosted the run in Equities but did not prevent the profit taking that happened on last Friday.

Although, the week is far from over and between PMI releases and key earnings, Markets should still await some volatility.

North-American Indices Performance

North American Top Indices performance since last Monday, July 23, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The S&P 500 is taking the crown since last Monday, with some choppy retracements but strong bullish moves.

On the current rewiring however, the Dow Jones is catching up with its peers relatively fast – Something to keep in check for the upcoming weeks.

US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

USD vs other Majors, July 23, 2025 - Source: TradingView.

There hasn't been much pity for the Greenback as it gave up most of its gains, back towards July 10th levels.

The USD is down between 0.95% to 1.60% against all of its major counterparts.

Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

CAD vs other Majors, July 23, 2025 - Source: TradingView.

Its been many weeks now that the Canadian Dollar hasn't seen much independent movement from the US Dollar.

It seems that the ongoing bigger picture in Forex is flows that are moving from Europe to Asia-Pacific Currencies in tandem and dragging both NA Currencies at the same time.
It was almost the contrary last week.

The performance from the Loonie is definitely not as bad as the one from the US Dollar.

Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD

USDCAD 2H Chart, July 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Almost nothing has changed since our last analysis of the pair and the action is still rangebound.

The ongoing USD selloff is pretty strong, but odds are not for a breakout as markets tend to consolidate towards incoming key Data (tomorrow will see the release of the US PMIs, more details further in the article)

Support Levels:

• Higher Timeframe Key support Zone 1.3560 to 1.36
• 1.3540 (2025 Lows)
• 1.35 Psychological level
• 1.3450 October 2024 lows

Resistance Levels:

• Pivot zone 1.3675 to 1.3686
• 1.3740 Pivot turned Resistance
• 1.38 Main Resistance

US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week

US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar

The rest of the week is promised to be more instructive in terms of Economic data releases.

Tomorrow (Thursday 24th) will see the release of Canadian Retail Sales at 8:30 A.M. with the Headline number at -1.1% Consensus.
Do not forget the weekly Jobless Claims (exp 227K)

The day will shortly follow with US Manufacturing (exp 52.5) and Services PMIs (exp 53) at 9:45 A.M. ET.


Friday should be lighter however with mostly the Durable Goods order data, which can be interesting data to look at the impacts of the Trump Policies in further detail.

Oil Traders should also monitor the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Counts at 13:00 on Friday.


Safe Trades for the rest of the week!

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.