Market Top or Just a Pause? Analysts Weigh in on Bitcoin’s Quiet Zone

Ben Graham · Julho 25

Bitcoin continues to consolidate just below the $120,000 mark, exhibiting restrained momentum despite previous rallies that pushed it to all-time highs above $123,000.

Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency has fluctuated between a low of $117,422 and a high of $119,197, ultimately trading at $118,578 at the time of writing.

While price movement has remained relatively stable, on-chain indicators suggest that broader market sentiment is still in a transitional phase, with neither excessive enthusiasm nor panic selling present among investors.

Bitcoin Market Signals Suggest Ongoing Expansion Phase

A recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Gaah highlights a key development in the Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI), a composite tool used to track phases in Bitcoin’s market cycle.

According to Gaah, the IBCI has returned to the “Distribution” zone, an area historically associated with the late stages of a bull market. However, this return is moderate, as the index has reached only 80% of the zone’s upper boundary, falling short of the full saturation levels typically observed at major market peaks.

The IBCI’s moderate level indicates that Bitcoin is in an expansionary stage, but without the typical signs of overheating. Gaah noted that two critical components of the IBCI, the Puell Multiple and the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), remain below their midpoint levels.

This suggests that short-term speculation and aggressive profit-taking, often seen in late-stage bull markets, have not yet fully emerged in the current cycle. As a result, while caution may be warranted, the broader trend does not yet resemble a typical market top.

The Puell Multiple, in particular, continues to hover near the “Discount” range, indicating that miner profitability remains moderate even with Bitcoin’s recent all-time high.

This points to a valuation structure where network participants have not yet entered the excess phase that typically precedes a market correction. Gaah emphasized that the current state of the IBCI reflects underlying market strength supported by fundamentals, not speculative fervor.

However, he also warned that the market is in a high-risk correction zone in the short term and should be monitored closely for shifts in retail behavior and miner activity.

Short-Term Holders Offer Support Around Realized Price

Adding to the discussion, another CryptoQuant analyst, Amr Taha, observed that Bitcoin has maintained price stability near the realized price of the UTXO Age Band for 1-day to 1-week holders, currently around $118,300.

This metric is often interpreted as a dynamic support level that reflects the average cost basis for recent buyers. According to Taha, the absence of capitulation among newer holders implies that recent market entrants remain confident, reinforcing the current price range as a psychological and technical support zone.

Together, these insights suggest that while Bitcoin may face near-term volatility, broader indicators do not yet reflect an overheated market. Instead, current metrics imply a market that continues to expand at a measured pace, with room for potential upside if fundamentals remain intact.