Microsoft (MSFT) Technical: Bullish trend remains intact above 20-day moving average

[Redator]

Microsoft is the second top-performing stock in the “Magnificent 7” group since 7 April 2025, major low (ex-post US Liberation Day tariffs announcement), where it staged a rally of 43.48% from 7 April to 28 July (see Fig 1).

Microsoft is set to report its Q2 earnings after the close of the US session on Wednesday, 30 July. Analysts expect earnings per share (EPS) of $3.38, up from $2.95 in the same quarter last year.

Fig 1: Performance of Mag 7 ETF, NVDA, MSFT, META, AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL & TSLA from 7 April to 28 July 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig 2: Microsoft medium-term trend as of 30 July 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 months)

Bullish bias with key medium-term pivotal support at 486.00 with resistances at 536.10/539.55 (Fibonacci extension cluster), and 566.90 (upper boundary of medium-term ascending channel and Fibonacci extension) (see Fig 2).

Key elements

• The key medium-term support of 486.00 is defined by the rising 50-day moving average.
• Since its 7 April 2025 low of 344.79, its price actions have evolved within a medium-term ascending channel and traded above the 50-day moving average since 25 April 2025, which supports an ongoing medium-term uptrend phase.
• The ratio chart of Microsoft versus the S&P 500 has continued to trend higher above an ascending trendline in place since 31 March 2025 that highlights further potential relative strength outperformance of Microsoft against the S&P 500.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 months)

A breakdown below 486.00 damages the medium-term uptrend to kickstart a corrective decline sequence to expose the next medium-term supports at 456.20 and 437.00 (also the 200-day moving average).

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