Meta Platforms (META) Technical: At risk of shaping corrective decline within major uptrend

[Redator]

Since the major swing low of 7 April 2025, which was seen across the major US stock indices ex-post US Liberation Day tariffs announcement, Meta Platforms performed almost on par (39.12%) with the “Magnificent 7”; 6 mega-cap technology stocks, inclusive of Tesla (40.34%) (see Fig 1).

Meta Platforms is set to report its Q2 earnings after the close of the US session on Wednesday, 30 July. Analysts expect earnings per share (EPS) of $5.88, up from $5.16 in the same quarter last year.

Fig 1: Performance of Mag 7 ETF, NVDA, MSFT, META, AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL & TSLA from 7 April to 28 July 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig 2: Meta Platforms medium-term trend as of 30 July 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 months)

Bearish bias with 747.90 as key medium-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 680.50 exposes the next medium-term support at 620.55 (also the 200-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 21 April 2025 low to 30 June 2025 all-time high).

Key elements

• Based on the Elliot Wave Principle/Fibonacci analysis, the recent medium-term uptrend phase from 21 April 2025 low to 30 June 2025 high may have reached an exhaustion point at 747.90, which increases the odds of a medium-term corrective decline at this juncture.
• The daily RSI momentum indicator has staged a bearish breakdown below a key parallel ascending support and has yet to reach its oversold region (below 30). These observations suggest a build-up of bearish momentum.
• The ratio chart of Meta Platforms versus the S&P 500 has trended lower since 11 July 2025, which highlights further potential relative strength underperformance of Meta Platforms against the S&P 500.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 months)

A clearance above 747.90 invalidates the corrective decline scenario to see the continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 804.90 and 848.00 (Fibonacci extension and the upper boundary of the long-term secular ascending channel from the October 2022 low).

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