Apple (AAPL) Technical: Toppish below 200-day MA as underperformance persists

[Redator]

Apple’s pivotal announcement of its flagship Apple Intelligence on 10 June 2024 during WWDC 2024, which propelled a rally of 35% on its share price to hit a fresh all-time high of 259.47 on 26 December 2024.

Since this AI milestone, Apple has lost its shine among traders and investors, as it has not been transparent about its AI strategy, while its competitors have announced concrete plans for new AI-centred data centres and devices.

Read more Apple Inc. (AAPL) Earnings Preview: Navigating Growth, Tariffs, and AI Innovation

Its share price has been punished severely, where Apple (AAPL)’s year-to-date performance as of Monday, 28 July has recorded a horrendous decline of -12%, making it one of only two members of the “Magnificent 7” that have lost value, together with Tesla (see Fig. 1).

Fig 1: YTD performance of Mag 7 ETF, NVDA, MSFT, META, AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL & TSLA as of 28 July 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Since the major swing low of 7 April 2025, seen on the major US stock indices, ex-post US Liberation Day tariffs announcement, Apple has also significantly underperformed by a wide margin as its share price recorded a gain of 18.11% as of 28 July versus a positive return of 40.34% seen on the “Magnificent 7” exchange traded fund over the same period (see Fig. 2).

Fig 2: Performance of Mag 7 ETF, NVDA, MSFT, META, AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL & TSLA from 7 April to 28 July 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig 3: Apple medium-term trend as of 31 July 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 months)

Bearish bias with 216.20/220.70 as key medium-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 203.45 (also the 50-day moving average) exposes the next medium-term support at 193.55 in the first step (see Fig. 3).

Key elements

• The medium-term rebound from the 8 April 2025 low of 168.99 has started to show signs of fatigue below the key 200-day moving average and a medium-term descending trendline in place since its current all-time high of 259.47 printed on 26 December 2024.
• The daily RSI momentum indicator has just staged a breakdown below the 50 level and a parallel ascending support from 8 April 2025, suggesting a potential bearish momentum condition.
• The ratio chart of Apple versus the S&P 500 has continued to trend lower since 2 July 2025, which highlights further potential relative strength underperformance of Apple against the S&P 500.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 months)

A clearance above 220.70 invalidates the corrective decline scenario to open up scope for a bullish revival for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 235.10 and 246.60.

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