Markets Weekly Outlook – US Services PMI, Bank of England rate decision and Canadian/NZ Employment

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Week in review: Volatile week between Trade Deals, the FOMC Meeting and the Non-Farm Payrolls report

The week kicked off with a risk-positive tone as headlines around a Euro–US trade breakthrough triggered a sharp gap higher in global markets. As a result, the US Dollar caught a strong bid, with the Euro and Yen notably losing ground amid improving US trade positioning and capital rotation into USD assets.

Midweek, the FOMC held rates steady as expected, but the tone was less dovish than markets hoped. With no signal for a September cut, rate futures quickly repriced, sending the Dollar even higher and pressuring risk assets globally. The move extended a USD run that was already in motion.

The Dollar Index, which touched 97.20 last Wednesday, ripped through the 100 handle, peaking near 100.20 by Friday morning. That strength started to shake broader markets, especially in FX, commodities, and rate-sensitive sectors.

Dollar Index 4H Chart, August 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Then came the NFP report. A messy release with mixed revisions sent shockwaves across asset classes.

Bonds and gold rallied hard on safe-haven flows, while equities took a hit as traders digested the combo of slowing growth and hawkish policy repricing.

It seems that the Goldilocks conditions for stocks have found some resistance.

Read More: Markets react sharply after the major NFP miss

Earnings Season

The strong Earnings season kept on providing good results, with notable tenace releases from 4 of the Magnificent 7 including Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft.

This has kept boosting the Nasdaq and S&P 500 towards their most recent all-time highs before the mood got dampened by this morning's data.

The Week Ahead: Less market-moving than last week, but emphasis on US Services PMIs and the Bank of England rate decision

Last week was a composed salad of key data, particularly for the US – Between ADP employment, the July FOMC, GDP, Core PCE, and finally this morning’s NFP.

Now, Markets are on edge going into the weekend after a reality check that things are not all so easy in the end. Firms face the consequences of the Trump Administration’s policies, which will keep influencing the data as the August 1 deadline bell rings.

Asia Pacific Markets - US/China Trade Talks pursue, NZ employment data

This week saw the further pushback of US-China trade talks for 90 more days, leaving Markets awaiting again for more concrete developments between the Strongest nation and the World's largest manufacturer.

In terms of key data for APAC nations, we will be expecting the Caixin Services PMIs (Monday evening) and the Inflation Data (Friday evening) from the Middle Kingdom.

NZD traders will await their Employment numbers on Tuesday end-afternoon and some more key releases with Wednesday's RBNZ Inflation Expectations survey for Q3.

AUD traders will also have to attentive to the Australian trade balance numbers, also releasing on Wednesday evening.

Economic Data from Europe, UK and the US

The EU will not provide much high-tier data for Markets, so traders will have to look elsewhere for Euro movement – Focus on US Dollar demand (or lack thereof) if you want to get a clear picture of FX flows.

For the US, the most important data of the week is expected on Tuesday at 10:00 A.M. with the ISM Services PMI release (consensus 51.5, previous 50.8).

The Bank of England notably releases their rate decision on Thursday August 7th morning, with a cut from 4.25% to 4% largely expected.

CAD traders will have to take a look for three important data points next week: the Canadian Trade Balance (releasing on Tuesday), both Services and Manufacturing PMIs releasing on Wednesday and finally, the Canadian Employment data on Friday.

Don't forget the key Earnings that Equity markets are awaiting with names like Mcdonald's, Palantir, Disney and Pfizer.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only)

Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend as next week should be another rollercoaster!

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