Fresnillo lifts gold forecast on strong first-half surge

[Ben Graham]

Shares in Fresnillo (LON: FRES) jumped 6% on Tuesday after the Mexican precious metals miner raised its gold production forecast for the year, driven by a strong first-half performance marked by rising profits and solid free cash flow.

For the six months ending June 30, gold production rose 16% to 314,000 ounces, fuelled by operational gains at the Herradura mine in Sonora. In contrast, silver output fell 12% year-over-year to 24.9 million ounces, weighed down by mine closures and lower ore grades.

The company responded to the performance by revising its full-year guidance. Fresnillo now expects to produce between 550,000 and 590,000 ounces of gold, up from a previous range of 525,000 to 580,000 ounces. The upward revision reflects both operational improvements and stronger metal prices, along with continued cost discipline.

Silver guidance was lowered slightly to a range of 47.5 million to 54.5 million ounces, down from 49 million to 56 million. Fresnillo attributed the cut to the end of silverstream contributions following a buyback agreement with Peñoles, the planned closure of the San Julián DOB mine, and lower grades across several operations.

Revenue rose 30% year-over-year to $1.94 billion, while EBITDA more than doubled to $1.1 billion, up 103%.

Fresnillo also scaled back its capital expenditure for 2025 to $450 million, signalling a move away from aggressive expansion towards focused reinvestment. Project delays at Saucito and Juanicipio prompted a reshuffling of priorities, with the company now aiming to optimize its existing asset base.

Fresnillo’s shares closed at 1,520p in London, giving it a market cap of nearly £11.2 billion ($14.9 billion).