Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Mixed Signals as Rate Cut Expectations Grow

[Redator]

This article is a follow-up to the article written on July 31, 2025 titled Silver (XAG/USD) Price: Down 1.5% as Trendline Break Hints at Deeper Correction

Silver prices have retraced following the initial selloff last week. Friday's US jobs data has obviously been extensively discussed, but that was the end of the initial bearish run for silver prices.

Since Friday Silver has risen around 3% but for now the bearish trend remains intact. The concern is that US rate cut expectations continue to ramp up. This continued today with news that Trump advisers are to push for a temporary Fed governor to fill the seat of resigned Fed Kugler.

A short-term Fed pick would give Trump more time on the Chair choice, the Fed pick is likely to work in the government, and be previously vetted by the Senate.

Such a move may see market expectations for rate cuts ramp up even further. This could work in favor of bulls as the US dollar could come under renewed selling pressure.

Technical Analysis - Silver (XAG/USD)

From a technical standpoint, the bearish trend remains intact as long as we do not get a daily candle close above the 38.22

The current move higher could just be a retracement before the next leg to the downside and a fresh lower low.

There is the descending trendline which was broken and hints at further upside. The ascending trendline is also in play.

This leaves a slightly confusing outlook for Silver moving forward, with the next move looking more like a coin toss at this stage.

The RSI period-14 on the daily chart has crossed above the 50 neutral level which hints at bullish momentum. However a cross back below the 50 level could be a sign that a lower low may be incoming.

A lot to ponder when it comes to Silver prices moving forward. A week ago things looked a lot simpler, highlighting the various factors at play in financial markets.

Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart, August 6, 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Client Sentiment Data - XAG/USD

Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are long on the Silver (XAG/USD) with 62% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are long means Silver could fall in the near-term.

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