Markets Today: Gold Slips 1%, US-China Trade Deal in Focus, FTSE 100 Rejects 100-day MA

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Asia Market Wrap - Markets Upbeat as China Tariff Deadline Looms

Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - US Inflation, EU/UK GDP and RBA Meeting to Shape Market Moves

Major stock indexes in Asia edged up on Monday, supported by strong company earnings that kept tech sector valuations high.

Japan's stock market was closed for a holiday, but futures rose to 42,380, hinting the index could hit its record high of 42,426 this week.

Meanwhile, Asia's semiconductor stocks dropped after Nvidia and AMD agreed to pay the US 15% of their chip sales to China under a new export deal.

Asian currencies stayed mostly stable on Monday as investors avoided big moves. The Philippine peso, Taiwan dollar, and South Korean won fell slightly by 0.1% to 0.3%, while other currencies saw little change. A global emerging market currency index stayed flat, and the dollar index dropped 0.2% after a 0.4% fall last week.

European Open - European Shares Mixed as US-China Talks in Focus

European stocks rose on Monday, continuing last week's gains, driven by optimism over a possible Ukraine peace deal. Investors are now focusing on U.S. inflation data and tariff talks later this week.

The STOXX 600 index climbed 0.3%, nearing its highest level since July 31. However, hopes for peace hurt German defense stocks, with Rheinmetall falling 3.7%, Renk down 3%, and Hensoldt dropping 2.1%.

Danish wind farm developer Orsted plunged 22% after announcing a $9.4 billion rights issue due to challenges in the US offshore wind market.

Northern Data fell nearly 3% after US company Rumble revealed plans for a $1.17 billion offer for the German AI cloud firm.

However, the mood for European shares has since soured slightly as market participants are preparing for trade and geopolitical risks as the China-US trade truce ends tomorrow, with uncertainty about whether it will be extended or tensions will rise again.

On the FX front, The dollar index dropped 0.2% to 98.073 after falling 0.4% last week. It weakened 0.2% against the yen, trading at 147.46, with Japanese markets closed for a holiday.

The offshore yuan traded at 7.184 to the dollar, swinging between gains and losses after data showed China's producer prices fell more than expected in July, while consumer prices stayed flat.

The Australian dollar held steady at 0.6526 ahead of a central bank meeting on Tuesday, where a 0.25% rate cut to 3.60% is expected due to weak inflation and rising unemployment.

The New Zealand dollar stayed near 0.59545, while the British pound rose 0.1% to 1.3465.

Currency Power Balance

Source: OANDA Labs

Gold prices fell in Asian trade and this trend has continued into the European open. The failure by Gold to gain acceptance above the $3400/oz handle could have prompted some profit taking, while a stronger US Dollar and lack of haven demand also contributed.

Oil prices held steady on Friday but were set for their biggest weekly drop since late June due to concerns over the economic impact of tariffs and a possible meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin.

Oil prices dropped on Monday, adding to last week's 4% decline, as investors awaited U.S.-Russia talks on the Ukraine war.

Brent crude fell 45 cents (0.68%) to $66.14 per barrel, while WTI crude dropped 49 cents (0.77%) to $63.39.

For a breakdown on Oil, read WTI Crude Forecast: Risk premium fades, supply pressures mount, bearish trend ahead

Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts

Looking at the economic calendar, it is a quiet start to the week on the data front.

Tomorrow markets will get fresh inflation data from the US. Market participants are waiting for U.S. consumer price data on Tuesday to see if it gives hints about the Federal Reserve's plans for rate cuts. A higher-than-expected report could shake markets by lowering hopes for quick easing.

Market participants are also keeping a keen eye on US-China trade talks. President Trump's August 12 deadline for a US-China deal approaches, chip policy remains a key focus. To avoid massive tariffs, Nvidia and AMD have reportedly agreed to give 15% of their China sales revenue to the U.S. government in exchange for export licenses for semiconductors.

This comes after a warning from a state-linked Chinese social media account claiming Nvidia's H20 chips could pose security risks for China.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Chart of the Day - FTSE Index

From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has rallied into the 100-day MA on the two-hour timeframe below.

A huge wick to the upside does not instill confidence in bulls as markets remain on edge given the US-China trade talks.

However, as long as support provided by the 200-day MA holds at 9092, a bullish move remains in play.

A two hour candle close above the 9130 (100-day MA) could lead to further gains for the FTSE while a break below the 200-day MA at 9092 could lead to a retest of the previous resistance turned support at 9048.

FTSE Daily Chart, August 11. 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

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