EUR/CHF Technical: Major bullish bottom supported by European stocks' outperformance

[Redator]

EUR/CHF continues to lag its major peer, EUR/USD. Since the May 2025 low, EUR/USD has surged 5.6%, while EUR/CHF has barely budged, posting just a 1.2% gain, highlighting the cross’s relative weakness in recent months.

Interestingly, several technical elements are now flashing signs of a potential medium-term (1to 3 weeks) bullish movement for the EUR/CHF as a catch-up tactical play.

Let’s dive deeper into it from a technical analysis perspective.

Fig. 1: EUR/CHF major & medium-term trends as of 15 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 2: Long-term secular trends of EUR/CHF & ratio of Euro Stoxx 50 ETF/MSCI All Country World Index ETF as of 14 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 weeks)

Bullish bias above 0.9360 key medium-term pivotal support (also the intersection points of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages), and clearance above 0.9445 sees the next medium-term resistance coming in at 0.9640 (neckline of the “Double Bottom”) in the first step (see Fig. 1).

Key elements

• EUR/CHF has regained upward traction, trading above its 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages following a -4.5% corrective decline from the 13 May 2025 high to the 11 April 2024 low. Technical structure indicates the cross may be progressing into the second upleg of a broader bullish bottoming formation that has been evolving since 3 August 2024 (see Fig.1).
• The daily RSI momentum indicator of the EUR/CHF remains in a medium-term bullish zone, holding above the 50 level while staying clear of overbought territory (above 70).
• The long-term secular trend of the EUR/CHF has a direct correlation with the ratio (relative strength) chart of the SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 over the iShares MSCI All Country World Index. The ratio chart has staged a major bullish breakout in April 2025, exiting its long-term secular bearish trend in place since April 2014 (see Fig. 2).
• This observation suggests that a major European stock market's outperformance (represented by the SPDR Euro Stoxx 50) against the rest of the world's stock markets is taking shape and may trigger a potentially significant bullish movement in the EUR/CHF cross pair.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks)

Failure to hold at the 0.9360 support negates the bullish tone for a slide to expose 0.9300 and even the major support of 0.9230/9210.

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