Markets Weekly Outlook – Jackson Hole, NZ Rate Decisions and UK/EU Inflation data

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After an already volatile trading week, next week will see a crossroad of data and geopolitical catalysts that may move currency, equity and crypto Markets.

Before looking at those, let's have a look at what happened this week.

Week in review: US mixed inflation data sending warning signs, RBA rate cut and Trump-Putin meeting

The US path to a much anticipated rate cut was well-drawn, particularly after Tuesday's CPI report coming along the FED's inflation target (2.5% y/y on the headline, 2.7% on the Core.)

However, Thursday's PPI data changed the narrative quite a lot.
Coming in at 0.9% vs 0.2% expected (and bringing the y/y Core to 3.7%!), Markets caught a bad surprise: Tariff-led inflation is making its way to the US Data.

With a mix of downward revised NFP data and a not-so-clear US inflation outlook, the September rate cut isn't going to be such a given.

There will still be one more NFP report and CPI report before the 17th of September Meeting happens.

In the meantime, risk-assets and sentiment have taken a hit from the tariff fears: Cryptos have taken a tough hit and US Indices are a bit more indecisive, yet still holding close to their recent highs.

Weekly Performance from different Asset classes

Weekly Asset Performance, look at how the US data changed the flows twice with commodities being the weekly losers – Source: TradingView

The Trump–Putin meeting should also be making headlines very soon, with the two presidents starting discussions in the afternoon.
The Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov expects a long meeting, saying that "In general, we can imagine that it will take at least 6-7 hours".

Access our WTI Oil analysis as some heightened volatility can be expected there in the afternoon, with volatility in the commodity possibly also spilling on Monday.

Elsewhere, Markets saw the Royal Bank of Australia cutting rates to 3.60% on mixed signals for the future RBA outlook.

You can access our latest AUDUSD analysis right here.

Read More: Dow Jones (DJIA) Retreats from Fresh All-Time Highs. A Pause Before the Next Leg Higher?

Read More: Imminent profit-taking in Cryptocurrencies – What's the story

The Week Ahead – Jackson Hole Symposium and a lot more

One of the key events concerning all types of Markets is the yearly Jackson Hole Symposium. A roadmap for the event just got published.

For those who don't know, the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is an annual gathering hosted by the Kansas City Fed, bringing together central bankers, policymakers, academics, and market participants to discuss key economic issues.

While the topics vary each year, it’s closely watched for views from Central Banks on the future outlook with the Tariff concerns and global growth.

One of the most memorable market-shaking moments from the yearly conference came in 2010, when then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke used his Jackson Hole speech to signal a second round of quantitative easing (QE2).

The hint sent risk assets surging and Treasury yields lower, cementing Jackson Hole’s reputation as a stage for major policy signals.

Asia Pacific Markets - Royal Bank of New Zealand rate decision

Asian-Pacific Markets will not get too much in terms of key data, with the main event happening in New Zealand.

The RBNZ is widely expected to cut their rates to 3% from 3.25% – Keep an eye on our upcoming RBNZ meeting preview coming up on Monday.|

The rate decision is happening on Tuesday at 22:00 ET.

For the rest, mid-tier data releases include Japan and New Zealand's trade balance, the Japanese national CPI data and Australian PMIs.

Markets are also awaiting for the PBoC Rate decision, just before the RBNZ meeting. The Chinese economy has been stagnant for a while now except for the stimulus offered by the Central Bank.
Economists are waiting to see if there is more stimulus to come to boost notably APAC currencies (like AUD and NZD) and commodities' growth outlook.

US, Europe and UK Markets - PMI data, Canadian inflation and Eurozone & UK PPI releases

The week really starts on Tuesday with the Canadian inflation forecasted at 2% – We will see if the Loonie gets enough of a push to strengthen after a rough past week.

The CAD has been getting dragged around by US Dollar flows, with the USDCAD stuck in a consolidation.

Markets will also see if the UK inflation gets a boost which may confirm further the doubts of prolonged rate cuts from the Bank of England – The BoE conference on Thursday 7th of August had almost failed to deliver a cut.

In Europe, both the UK and Germany will release their PPI data on Wednesday where we will see how producer prices moved on the other side of the Atlantic.
They might be movers for European currencies after this week's market shaking US PPI.

The US doesn't have many economic releases per-se, but will still see a few events including the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday (14:00) and many key speeches from a divided Federal Reserve, including Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole scheduled at 10:00 A.M. on Friday.

Of course, don't forget to check all the different PMI releases expected from the Eurozone, the UK and finally the US (Thursday 9:45 for US global services PMI).

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only)

Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!

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