Dow Jones Technical: The laggard has started to play a bullish catch-up

[Redator]

This is a follow-up analysis and update of our prior report, “Dow Jones Technical: Minor pull-back found support with bullish elements sighted in Caterpillar”, published on 4 August 2025.

The US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy for Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) has kicked off the anticipated bullish impulsive upswing from the 1 August 2025 minor swing low of 43,335.

It rallied by 2.9% from 4 August, surpassing the previous 43,100 record high in December 2024, and rallied to a new all-time intraday high of 45,283 on last Friday, 15 August’s Asian session, before it pulled back and closed at 45,032 at the end of the US session.

Let’s now examine its latest medium-term (multi-week) directional bias from a technical analysis perspective.

Fig. 1: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 18 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 2: Performances of major global benchmark stock indices from 11 Aug 2025 to 15 Aug 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 weeks)

Bullish bias above 44,420 key medium-term pivotal support for the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index, with the next medium-term resistances coming in at 45,660/45,730 and 46,180 (Fibonacci extensions) (see Fig. 1).

Key elements

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average has managed to outperform its peers last week, recording a rally of 2.2% from 11 August 2025 to 15 August 2025, surpassing the S&P 500 (1.2%) and the Nasdaq 100 (0.8%). (see Fig. 2).
• The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index have continued to oscillate above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 12 August 2025, reinforcing a medium-term uptrend phase.
• The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index is still hovering above the 50 level, which suggests a potential bullish condition for the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index.
• The financial sector, holding the largest weight of about 27% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, stands to benefit from the recent steepening of the US Treasury yield curve. The 10–2 year spread widened from 0.4% on 1 August to a three-month high of 0.6% as of Friday, 15 August, a move that could boost banks’ net interest margins and, in turn, create a positive feedback loop for the Dow.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks)

Failure to hold at the 44,420 key support negates the bullish tone for a slide to retest the next medium-term support at 43,925 (also the 50-day moving average). A break below it may trigger a deeper corrective decline to expose the major support zone of 43,335/43,130 (also the 200-day moving average).

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