Is The Dogecoin Crash Over? Analyst Says This Is Crucial Now

[Ben Graham]

The Dogecoin question of the summer—whether the crash is finally over—met a hard-edged reality check in crypto analyst VisionPulsed’s August 20 video analysis. Stripping away “bullish propaganda,” he argued that Dogecoin will not meaningfully trend until two outside markers flip decisively risk-on: Ethereum crossing its all-time high and the Russell 2000 clearing its own peak. “We’re bearish until the Russell breaks the high and we’re bearish until ETH breaks the high,” he said, adding that the absence of those breakouts explains why familiar cycle cues have failed to ignite altcoins this time.

Is The Dogecoin Crash Over?

VisionPulsed opened with deliberate satire—“daily dose of bearish because it’s always bearish forever and ever”—but moved quickly to the data. He noted Dogecoin has printed higher lows and higher highs since October 2023, yet the tape has been locked in drift for months: “The price of Dogecoin has not done anything for almost 7 months now… we’re at 175 days of sideways.”

He framed that range as potential accumulation by analogy to prior long compressions, observing that earlier multi-month stalls preceded sharp expansions: “In the big picture, one would consider that to be bullish… This one was massive, like 400 days of sideways… we might even be [in] accumulation, if you will.”

The analyst’s core contention is that historical triggers that once synchronized altseason have broken down in this cycle. He revisited two now-faded playbooks: post-halving timed runs and the “BTC makes ATH → DOGE follows” sequence. “If we look at the halving… Dogecoin [historically] went to the moon about 240–260 days post-halving,” he said.

“Right now… we’re almost at 500 days post-halving and there’s still no shot on the moon.” Likewise, Bitcoin tagging fresh highs has not transmitted to DOGE: “Bitcoin breaks the high, Doge makes a new all-time high… Bitcoin breaks the high, nothing happens. We’re still bearish.” In his view, that leaves only two unfulfilled, cycle-consistent conditions—Ethereum and the Russell 2000 at record levels—before declaring an altseason regime change.

Market leadership and “dominance” dynamics are part of his diagnosis. On his charts, previous attempts by the Russell 2000 to push through the top coincided with a decline in dominance, a pattern he says could help unlock altcoin breadth. But he cautioned that a failed breakout would likely reset the clock: “Everybody thinks this is altseason, but the dominance is going to go back up because the Russell is going to go down? It’s very possible.” Until the equity small-cap gauge and ETH both clear resistance, he prefers “optimistic” to “excited.”

Even as he dismantled over-promotional narratives—“the data doesn’t actually support [‘biggest altseason of all time’]”—VisionPulsed did outline the only scenario he’s willing to call “hopeium.” He mapped the Russell 2000 “getting close to the all-time high” alongside ETH “also getting close to the high,” pairing that backdrop with DOGE’s compression as the same setup that preceded prior impulsive legs: “Once the Russell gets over the high and once Ethereum gets over the high, I’m going to start getting very excited. But until then, we’re not there.”

That sobriety extends beyond price. He pointed to dwindling engagement as a sentiment tell: “It’s very possible that at any moment the videos will start getting below 2,000 views… There’s nobody here. Google Trends back that up.” In his reading, the absence of retail heat is consistent with an unresolved cycle transition rather than a coiled spring already in motion.

The conclusion landed where it began: Dogecoin’s crash narrative cannot be retired on crypto-native signals alone. Without concurrent breakouts in ETH and the Russell 2000, he argues, DOGE remains range-bound and the altcoin complex underpowered relative to past cycles.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.21757.