Can Ethereum Really Hit $20,000 This Cycle? Analyst Maps The Path

[Ben Graham]

Crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) says his long-standing bottom thesis on the ETH/BTC pair has played out and published explicit cycle targets anchored to the cross. In a chart shared on X, he reiterated that “ETH bottom call” is in and framed the roadmap entirely through ETH/BTC levels rather than ETH/USD, arguing that Ether’s outperformance typically follows Bitcoin’s impulse and that “all major liquidity comes from BTC.”

How High Can Ethereum Go This Cycle?

Astronomer’s post centers on a multi-month “zone” on ETH/BTC that he had marked in advance as a potential cyclical inflection. He writes that the call looked “delusional” when first drawn—“a ‘ridiculously long’ prediction line (straight up from the bottom) from what ‘could impossibly be the ETHBTC bottom’ at the time”—but says the turn aligns with his proprietary sentiment work.

“The sentiment on ETH was the worst my sentiment metric has ever tracked,” with narratives ranging from “ETH is a bad investment,” to “ETH foundation is selling,” to “SOL is the new ETH,” to “utility coins are dead.” In his words, “that type of sentiment allowed us to confirm the bottom on ETHBTC in alignment with our ancient plan, at the time it hit our zone.”

With that backdrop, the chart and commentary lay out three ETH/BTC targets for the remainder of the cycle. The first is 0.058 BTC per ETH, which he notes was “still 35% above here” at the time of posting and, translated directly using spot Bitcoin, “puts ETH at approx. $6.500 if BTC stays at this price.”

The second is 0.091, “pretty much a double from here,” corresponding to “$ETH to $10,000+, 5 figures,” a level where he says he “will have sold over half of my spot bags.”

The final and highest target is 0.16, “just under a 4x from here, putting ETH at $20,000 or higher.” He is explicit that the 0.16 mark is aspirational rather than base case: “That is certainly my highest target, and I do not expect that to be reached guaranteed. But I love it open just in case it does happen.”

The technical logic he presents is deliberately pair-driven. By mapping the cycle with ETH/BTC, he seeks to capture relative strength rather than absolute price and to sidestep the moving base of BTC’s dollar value. The implied ETH/USD levels in his post are simple translations of ratio × BTC price; he adds that those USD conversions “will, in fact, be underestimates as I also see BTC rise further.” In other words, the chart’s horizontal levels are ETH/BTC at 0.058, 0.091, and 0.16; the USD numbers are contingent and will float with Bitcoin.

The analyst also rejects calendar heuristics outright. “The reason I never talk about seasonality or ‘red September’ or ‘sell in May, walk away’… is because I don’t want to promote putting your hard earned capital on weak data… Seasonality, has neither.” He adds that “Seasons don’t work in markets, only cycles do,” and signs off with a jab at the meme: “For red September, kindly, visit your local forest…”

Importantly, the pathway he describes is conditional on the same relative-rotation dynamic that has governed past cycles: Bitcoin leads, Ether lags until liquidity rotates, then ETH/BTC advances through predefined shelves. In that framework, the analysis does not depend on any single ETH/USD number; it depends on ETH/BTC reclaiming and holding the cited bands.

Astronomer is candid about positioning psychology as well. He argues that while “it seems as if many are all bull posting ETH now and holding big bags,” order-flow suggests “most of those people haven’t bought from down low, are rather frozen out or are forced to buy higher with higher leverage.” In his view, that structure still favors upside toward the posted ETH/BTC targets: “So as long as that stays that way, I continue to expect these targets.”

At press time, ETH traded at $4,621.