Nasdaq 100 Technical: Bullish trend intact despite Nvidia -3% (after-hours) sell-off

[Redator]

This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior report, “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Potential bullish reversal at 50-day moving average” dated on 21 August 2025, considering the latest second-quarter earnings release of Nvidia, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) juggernaut and largest market-cap component stock of the Nasdaq 100.

Since our last publication, the price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 futures) have staged the expected bullish reversal, rallied by 2%, and hit the intermediate resistance zone of 23,580/660 as expected.

Thereafter, the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index has drifted in a sideways range of 1% since this Monday, 25 August, ahead of Nvidia earnings release scheduled after the close of Wednesday, 27 August’s US session.

In today’s early Asian session, the Nasdaq 100 futures have shed an intraday loss of -0.2% in reaction to Nvidia’s after-hours share price negative performance of -3.1% after the release of its second-quarter earnings.

Despite Nvidia’s lackluster ex-post earnings share price performance, the short to medium-term bullish trend phases of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index remain intact.

Let’s decipher in greater detail.

Nvidia tumbled -3% (after hours), but the bullish trend remains intact

Fig. 1: Nvidia revenue by business segments with data centre y/y growth as of Q2 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)

Fig. 2: Nvidia minor trend as of 28 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The lacklustre after-hours share price performance of Nvidia has been attributed to its significant Artificial Intelligence (AI)- centric data centre revenue, which came in below expectations at US$41 billion, compared to analysts' expectations of US$41.3 billion.

Year-on-year growth in data centre revenue has continued to decelerate, easing from a staggering 155% in Q2 2024 to 56% in Q2 2025.

Despite the Q2 slowdown in data centre revenue growth, Nvidia has issued a positive outlook on its data centre business segment during the earnings call. It anticipates a US$3 to $4 trillion AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade, presenting long-term growth opportunities. Also, Nvidia is on track to achieve over US$20 billion in sovereign AI revenue in 2025.

In addition, Nvidia is preparing for the next generation of graphics processing units (GPUs) with the Rubin platform that is expected to ramp up in production in the latter part of 2025.

Lastly, based on a technical analysis standpoint, the intra-session drop of -5.3% seen in Nvidia in the after-hours session upon the release of its Q2 earnings has managed to stall at its medium-term ascending channel support in place since 7 April 2025 low, and came close to its 50-day moving average (see Fig. 2).

Positive technical indicators, combined with upbeat guidance from Nvidia’s data centre segment, are expected to support its share price, potentially creating a reinforcing effect on the broader Nasdaq 100.

Fig. 3: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index minor trend as of 28 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

Maintain bullish bias on the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index with tightened key short-term pivotal support now at 23,308. A clearance above 23,660 reinforces the new bullish impulsive sequence to retest the current all-time high area at 23,930 before the next intermediate resistance comes in at 24,090 (Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 3).

Key elements

• The price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index have staged a bullish breakout and retested its former minor descending resistance, drawn from its current all-time high level of 23,986, now turns into an intermediate pull-back support at 23,450.
• The US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index has now traded back above its 20-day moving average.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index has staged a rebound after a test on its parallel ascending support, which suggests bullish momentum condition remains intact.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

A break below the 23,308 key support negates the bullish tone on the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index for another round of minor corrective decline to retest the intermediate support at 23,056, with a maximum limit set at the 22,960/22,945 key medium-term pivotal support (also the 50-day moving average).

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