No Ethereum Rally Until Q4? Analyst Eyes Choppy September Before New Highs

[Ben Graham]

As the crypto market continues to struggle, Ethereum (ETH) is attempting to hold a crucial zone as support to resume its bullish rally. However, some analysts suggest that the cryptocurrency will see another choppy September before the long-awaited Q4 run.

Ethereum Party To Be Delayed?

Amid the recent market correction, Ethereum closed August around the $4,390 area, recording its highest monthly close since November 2021. The end-of-month market pullback sent the King of Altcoins’ price to the $4,250 area before bouncing, a 14% drop from its recent all-time high (ATH) of $4,956.

The cryptocurrency began the new month attempting to reclaim the $4,500 level as support for the third consecutive day, but failed to hold this crucial area, dropping below its monthly opening.

Market watcher Cipher X highlighted that ETH has historically seen mixed performances throughout September, with more red than green price action and an average negative monthly return of 6.1%.

According to CoinGlass data, Ethereum has seen double-digit negative returns five times since 2016, losing 21.65% in 2017. Meanwhile, it has only recorded a positive return in the double-digits once, with a 14.53% performance in 2016.

Nonetheless, the market watcher noted that if the altcoin’s performance stumbles this month, “history suggests the real rebound could come right after.” Notably, October and November have historically been green months for ETH, with an average return of 4.7% and 7.8%, respectively.

“September might be choppy but the months that follow have usually been much friendlier to ETH,” the analyst affirmed. Similarly, Bitfinex suggested that “September could mark the cyclical low point before structural drivers reassert for a Q4 recovery.”

In a Monday report, the crypto exchange explained that they expect the broader market pullback to conclude relatively soon, adding that, despite the recent sell-off, institutional accumulation of ETH remains robust, while only 18.3 million ETH currently sit on exchanges.

ETH Q4 Take Off Eyes New Highs

Michaël van de Poppe underscored ETH’s performance, affirming that Ethereum is “on its way toward a beautiful spot to accumulate before Q4 is ready to take off.”

According to the analyst, the cryptocurrency could see a 10%-20% correction this month to the $3,900-$3,400 range, which served as an accumulation zone before the August breakout.

Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that ETH has been hovering between $4,300-$4,500 over the past week, consolidating in the mid-zone of its local range.

The analyst warned that the lack of momentum at the start of the month could see the cryptocurrency retest the range lows, where the 200-Day Moving Average (MA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) are situated in the 4-hour chart.

However, he noted that breaking out and consolidating above the local range would lead to higher levels and into its price discovery phase.

Meanwhile, market watcher Merlijn The Trader affirmed that Ethereum has entered the expansion phase as the $4,000-$4,100 zone has been retested as support throughout the recent pullbacks.

Per the post, the multi-year trendline has been turned from resistance into a launchpad that will propel the cryptocurrency’s price to the $7,000 level once the breakout begins.

As of this writing, Ethereum is trading at $4,268, a 4% decline in the daily timeframe.