USDJPY stays capped as BoJ Governor Ueda and PM discuss policy – Pre-NFP breakout levels

[Redator]

USDJPY, one of the most volatile FX pairs is still holding within a tight range as traders turn to metals with Gold making new all-time highs and Silver racing towards a fresh record.

FED's Waller appeared with comments this morning, foreshadowing a Rate cut at the upcoming 18th of September FOMC Meeting but the outlook for the pace of cuts is still uncertain.

As mentioned in our most recent USDJPY piece, the Bank of Japan would rather the Federal Reserve to move first to reduce the interest rate differential between the US and Japan which is detrimental to the Yen and hurting Japanese citizens' buying power.

As a matter of fact, BoJ Governor Ueda met Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba in a bi-annual meeting to discuss Japanese and global market outlooks.

With Yields rising strongly (Japan's 20Y and 30Y yields breaking 4 decade highs) while the BoJ tries to hold rates relatively low to stimulate inflation, challenges keep arising for the Yen.

Still holding the range strongly, players are looking to confirm the future outlook for the US Dollar which will decide in which direction the pair breaks out, and the answer will come after Friday's Job release.

Read More: Dow Jones forms rising wedge ahead of NFP and FED's Waller comments on rate cuts – what it means for the index

USDJPY 8H Chart and technicals

USDJPY 8H Chart, September 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The traditionally volatile pair has been stuck in a 2,000 pip range since the beginning of August, with traders desperately awaiting for a clearer path ahead.

US Labor data and the uncertainty it's been holding is hurting trend traders but has helped participants who prefer rangebound conditions.

Friday's 8:30 Non-Farm Payrolls release will be more than consequential and has high probability of triggering a breakout.

For bulls, look for a break above above the range highs between 148.70 to 149.50 in the case of a strong Friday NFP release (a strong beat would reduce total rate cuts = bullish for the pair)

Bears would on the other hand seek for a break below the 146.00 to 146.50 range lows, supported by the 200-period Moving Average (currently at 145.52).

Today, the US Dollar is seeing some decent selling after this morning's miss in JOLTS job openings data which confirms the deceleration of the US Job market, the question for Friday is to what extent.

Technical levels for USDJPY trading

Resistance Levels

• 149.12 daily highs
• May range extremes from 148.70 to 149.50 (daily MA 200 in confluence)
• 150.00 to 150.90 July resistance

Support Levels

• Pivot at the 148.00 zone (acting as immediate support, 50H MA in confluence)
• 146.50 key support (200 MA in confluence)
• 145.00 psychological support

Safe Trades!

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