Hesitant equities and (maybe) better relations between US and Canada — North American mid-week Market update

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Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.

All markets have been waiting long for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls release (8:30 A.M. ET), as no other piece of data seems to count anymore. (Markets are still keeping an eye on inflation-led tariffs, of course, but it appears that Labor still takes the upper hand.)

It seems that with the latest speech from Canadian PM's Mark Carney and some political micmacs, the relationship between him and US President Trump has been rebuilding, but markets are still awaiting for more.

Since Friday, August 22nd, FED Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference, Equity Markets have been holding strong amid a lack of diplomatic progress (wars don't affect markets too much these days).

Another element that underlies stocks' resistance to fall is the bizarre Market atmosphere that is felt when looking at the ongoing skyrocketing price action in Metals.

Yields are going up throughout the globe (down small today in the US), and metals are rising. This shows that the ongoing trade resembles another phase of currency debasing.

Don't forget that metals are US dollar-denominated, and with the rangebound FX markets, these are direct fiat currency outflows – Monitoring gold purchases from Central banks and outflows from exchanges could be interesting for the period to come.

By the way, before we tackle the charts of this mid-week recap, metals keep creating more craziness in markets with this anecdote: The London Metal Market delayed its open to 9:30 for mysterious reasons (probably the exchange or some big players being caught in awkward positions).

Read More:

• USDJPY stays capped as BoJ Governor Ueda and PM discuss policy – Pre-NFP breakout levels
• Dow Jones forms rising wedge ahead of NFP and FED's Waller comments on rate cuts – what it means for the index

Let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USDCAD and DXY charts.

North-American Indices Performance

North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – September 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The TSX really keeps surprising to the upside every week – a very consistent performance.

On the other hand, US markets are starting to feel more uncertain, all down around 1% since the past Monday (European markets are even worse, hurt by Yield and government uncertainties).

Dollar Index 8H Chart

Dollar Index 8H Chart, September 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

With neither fundamentals or technicals changing for the Greenback, I invite you to check up our (valid until Friday) US Dollar analysis.

US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

USD vs other Majors, September 3, 2025 - Source: TradingView.

The rangebound action in FX Markets can be quickly observed on the yoyos observed against all currencies – The US Dollar is consolidating since mid-August, still awaiting for more clarity on the extent and pace of upcoming rate cuts.

A strong or even a decent beat NFP (+30K vs expectations or more) should heavily boost the Greenback.

On the other hand, an as-expected to small miss should leave the Dollar consolidating/elevate slightly, while a larger miss (above -30K relative to exps.) should relaunch the USD Downtrend

Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

CAD vs other Majors, September 3, 2025 - Source: TradingView.

Rebounding against every currency except for the Australian Dollar (which keeps surprising Markets with upside to their data), it seems that the Loonie has found another intermediate bottom.

It had been struggling quite largely against its peers throughout August, dragged back down from the renewed wave of US Dollar weakness.

Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD

USDCAD 8H Chart, August 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The USDCAD price action is still looping in limbo trading, but one thing is for sure: A lot of positioning has happened around 1.38 (current trading) with this level potential acting as a magnet if fundamentals keep showing no progress.

It will be, like for everything, up to US Dollar strength or weakness.

A beat on the Canadian Employment might help sellers further but for now, the action is contained between 1.3750 and 1.3850.

Watch for breakouts to both sides on Friday, while a failure to do so should strengthen the current range further.

Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:

Resistance Levels:

• 1.38 immediate resistance Zone (+/- 150 pips – Immediate resistance)
• 1.3850 Main resistance
• 1.3925 Aug 22 highs last Friday highs
• May Highs 1.40185

Support Levels:

• 8H MA 200 and 50-Day MA 1.3730
• Key longer-term pivot Zone 1.3750
• Main Support Zone 1.3675 to 1.3686

An invitation to check out our most recent USDCAD analysis as not much has changed since.

US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week

US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar

The importance of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report can't be emphasized enough. An NFP preview will soon be published on our website so stay logged in!

Canadian employment also gets released at the same time (Friday morning 8:30 ET).

Later that day will see the release of Canadian Ivey PMI data (Friday 10:00 A.M.)

Of course, don't forget tomorrow's US Services PMI data which seems to be losing a bit of traction as of late in terms of market movement – but always stay ready for surprises with such data.

And stay in touch with the army of FED Speakers all the way to Friday afternoon.

Safe Trades!

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