US Indices all regain their recent tops as fears for tomorrow's data abate – Key levels for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq ahead of the NFP

[Redator]

This morning saw the release of many data points that are making markets feel a bit easier:
ADP Employment (which has been proving its recent accuracy) hasn't missed by a large amount, Unit Labor costs haven't risen much, Claims are higher but by a small margin and the earlier JOLTS (job openings) data is still far from bad.

Overall, this week's data is the perfect recipe for the Federal Reserve to adjust their rates at the upcoming meeting (Sep 17), which would help with their current stance.

A cut in the middle of a still growing economy would have been perceived as further hurting the FED's independence ; The thing is, the labor market is indeed cooling (but not falling off a cliff).

In combination with a slight beat to the ISM Services PMI data, the combination helps equities to regain their recent tops.

Nonetheless, participants will keep awaiting for tomorrow's Non-Farm payrolls release before moving the needle further – Let's discover which levels may come into play at tomorrow's number for the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

You can access our two NFP previews right here:

Read More:

• Markets Already Looking to NFP
• NFP Preview: US Jobs Report & Implications for the DXY, Gold (XAU/USD) & Dow Jones (DJIA)

Most Read: Silver nears its all-time highs, where to look next? XAG higher timeframe outlook

Dow Jones 8H Chart

Dow Jones 8H Chart, September 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Dow Jones is going ballistic in this session, close to invalidating the shorter timeframe double top that was formed throughout the monthly open.

Mood might be getting a tid bit too euphoric ahead of such key data, but it seems that Markets are getting ahead of the curve with FED's Williams balanced-dovish comments.

In any case, breaking the most recent all-time highs would let the index test the 46,000 level and potentially even try the 46,400 to 46,800 Fibonacci-extension from April lows.

The most bullish case for NFP would be a slight miss on the data but just slight enough to not trigger a too-late FED widespread panic (around 10 to 25K).

A bearish scenario (very low number or huge number, pushing rate cuts further) would potentially lead a correction towards the previous NFP lows at 43,400.

Levels for Dow Jones trading

Resistance Levels

• Current All-time high 45,764
• ATH Resistance Zone 45,700 (+/- 150 pts)
• 1.618 Fibonacci-Extension for potential ATH resistance 46,400 to 46,850

Support Levels

• Previous ATH resistance zone, now pivot 45,000 to 45,280
• Support 44,200 to 44,500
• Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750

S&P 500 8H Chart

S&P 500 8H Chart, September 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Same as the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 is invalidating its previous double top with this morning's rally.

Bulls have brought the index back up strongly at the 6,400 level which will hold a key importance for upcoming action.

Any break below may increase profit-taking pressure, while holding the upward channel should maintain the uptrend.

Bull/bear scenarios for Non-Farm payrolls are the same as for the Dow Jones.

Levels for S&P 500 trading

Resistance Levels

• session highs 6,512 All-time highs
• All-time high resistance zone 6,490 to 6,512 (currently testing)
• 6,540 to 6,550 Potential ATH resistance (from Fibonacci extension)
• Way higher Fib-extension potential resistance from 6,650 to 6,700

Support Levels

• End-July Top now Pivot 6,420 to 6,430
• 6,400 Main Support
• 6,300 psychological support
• 6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (NFP Lows)

Nasdaq 8H Chart

Nasdaq 8H Chart, September 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The action in Nasdaq is also strong today but seems more rangebound than its peers.

Indeed, the tech-heavy index got boosted by strong Mag 7 performances in yesterday afternoon and today's sessions, but the technicals suggest that the consecutive up and down action should reinforce a consolidation period.

This will of course depend on tomorrow's number, with the bull/bear case similar as its peers. An as-expected data release should lead to even more rangebound action between 23,000 to 23,700.

Levels for Nasdaq trading

Resistance Levels

• Current All-time Highs 23,986
• 23,700 to 23,732 NFP highs acting as immediate resistance
• 24,250 potential resistance at middle of upward channel (broken?)

Support Levels

• Consolidation lows 23,000
• 23,000 Key Support
• 22,700 support at NFP lows
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

Safe Trades for tomorrow's huge number!

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