Hedera Bears Take Charge With 10% Weekly Drop, But Key Support Could Spark Recovery

[Ben Graham]

Hedera Hashgraph’s native token, HBAR, has been under intense selling pressure, recording a 12% decline in the past 30 days and another 10% drop over the past week.

The bearish streak has shaken investor confidence, with both social and institutional signals pointing toward continued downside risk.

Retail and Institutional Sentiment Weakens for Hedera

Data from Santiment shows that HBAR’s social dominance, a measure of how frequently it is discussed compared to other cryptocurrencies, has dropped by 55% in the past month, now sitting at just 0.74%.

This decline shows waning retail trader interest, a key driver of momentum during previous bullish cycles. Historically, spikes in social dominance have triggered rallies, but fading discussion often results in lower trading volumes and sluggish recovery.

Similarly, Hedera’s Smart Money Index (SMI), which tracks institutional activity during the first and last hours of trading, has fallen to 1.108. This suggests that experienced players are reducing exposure, pushing a cautious short term Hedera investment approach

Technical Levels Define Bull and Bear Scenarios

From a technical perspective, HBAR trades in a fragile zone. Analysts point to $0.1885 as a critical support level. A decisive move below this threshold could confirm further downside, pushing the token deeper into bearish territory.

On the flip side, buyers have a clear recovery path if renewed demand emerges. A rebound above $0.2212 would be the first sign of strength, potentially setting up a move toward $0.2636. These levels are now the key battlegrounds for bulls and bears, with traders closely watching price action for confirmation.

Meanwhile, trading volumes remain subdued, reflecting weak participation from both retail and institutional investors. While low volume sometimes precedes a consolidation-based breakout, it also increases the risk of prolonged weakness if demand fails.

What Could Trigger an HBAR Recovery?

Despite the current bearish narrative, catalysts for a recovery remain in play. Broader crypto market rallies, ecosystem adoption, or positive developments in Hedera’s enterprise partnerships could revive sentiment.

Whale accumulation trends have also been noted in recent weeks, suggesting that large investors still see long-term potential in the network.

For now, cautious optimism defines the outlook. Traders are advised to monitor $0.1885 support and $0.2212 resistance closely. A sustained break above the latter could mark the beginning of a relief rally, while a loss of support may extend the ongoing decline.

Cover image from ChatGPT, HBARUSD chart from Tradingview