US Non-Farm Payrolls finally release and they miss! 22K vs 75K consensus, Canadian Jobs data regress (-65K vs +10K)

[Redator]

The monthly release for US August jobs is at 22K vs 75K Expectations

The prior month came at 74K vs 110K expectations, but the biggest surprise was to the downside revisions which turned a 291K increase in two months to an-only 33K increase.

With the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, there really is a decent slowdown happening in the US.

Canadian jobs also regressed quite largely at -65K vs 10K expectations, sending the Loonie down vs other majors.

The US Dollar is falling off, about to break support, equities are rallying but mixed : a more than 25 bps is starting to price but still has low probabilities of happening.

The data still shows an increase, albeit a very small one.

Check out the reactions to the US Dollar, a few FX Charts and Equities Futures.

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Market reactions

Market overview, September 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView

It will be essential to log in after the Market open to see reactions when most volumes enter the market.

For now, it's USD and CAD down, risk-assets up but mixed, US Treasuries and Gold flying higher.

Current FX Picture after NFP

FX currency performance, September 5, 2025 – Source: Finviz

Look at the current pricing for FOMC Cuts for the rest of the year:

Cut Pricing for the rest of the year – Source: FEDWatch Tool

Markets just added about 17 bps of extra cut pricing to the rest of the year, which takes the 2.1 cuts to just about 3 cuts.

Let's see how this progresses and what influence it will have on Markets.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier

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