Forecast for GBP/USD on September 9, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday rebounded from the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3482, reversed in favor of the pound, and began a new upward move. Today, a rebound from the 100.0% corrective level at 1.3587 or from the resistance zone 1.3611–1.3620 will work in favor of the U.S. currency and a certain pullback. A breakout above these two resistances will increase the likelihood of further growth for the pound toward the next corrective level at 127.2% – 1.3708.

The wave situation is beginning to shift to "bullish." The last completed wave down broke through two previous lows, while the new upward wave broke the last two peaks. Thus, at this point, one can assume that a new bullish trend is beginning after more than two months of bearish dominance. The dominance turned out to be very weak, as the news background in most cases did not support the bears.

On Monday, bulls continued to attack even without news support. On Friday, the Nonfarm Payrolls and U.S. unemployment reports delivered another blow to the bears' ambitions and positions, and today they could suffer another defeat. On Tuesday, the annual Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released, revising job creation data for the past 12 months. If the actual value turns out lower than the sum of the last 12 monthly reports, it will be a serious reason for another fall in the U.S. currency.

In my view, the U.S. dollar will continue to decline regardless, and the bears will keep retreating. The last two months have shown that bears lack the strength for a full-fledged trend, and they also lack news support. Next week, the FOMC may ease monetary policy for the first time in 2025, which could deliver another blow to the dollar, even though traders are already confident of a rate cut.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has made another reversal in favor of the pound and consolidated above the 1.3378–1.3435 zone. Thus, the growth process may continue toward the next correction level at 127.2% – 1.3795. The chart picture is currently ambiguous, as traders push the pair back and forth. For now, I recommend paying more attention to the hourly chart. No impending divergences are observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders over the last reporting week became slightly more bearish. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 61, while the number of short positions rose by 1,848. The gap between longs and shorts now stands at 76,000 versus 109,000. However, as we see, the pound still leans toward growth, and traders toward buying.

In my opinion, the pound still has downward prospects. The news background for the U.S. dollar in the first six months of the year was dreadful but is slowly beginning to improve. Trade tensions are easing, major deals are being signed, and the U.S. economy will recover in Q2 thanks to tariffs and various investments in the U.S. At the same time, expectations of Fed easing in the second half of the year have already started putting significant pressure on the dollar, with the U.S. labor market weakening and unemployment rising. Thus, I still see no grounds for a "dollar trend."

News calendar for the U.S. and UK:

U.S. – Adjustment of the annual Nonfarm Payrolls figure (14:00 UTC).

On September 9, the economic calendar contains just one entry, but an important one! The news background may strongly influence market sentiment on Tuesday.

GBP/USD forecast and trading tips:

Sales of the pair are possible today after a rebound from 1.3587 or from the 1.3611–1.3620 zone on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3482. Purchases were possible after a rebound from 1.3357–1.3364, from 1.3416–1.3425, and from 1.3482. Today the target at 1.3587 may be reached. New buys can be considered after a close above the 1.3611–1.3620 zone, with a target at 1.3708.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3586–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

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