New Zealand manufacturing sales slide, kiwi edges lower

[Ben Graham]

The New Zealand dollar added gains earlier today but was unable to consolidate. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5927, down 0.19% on the day. The New Zealand dollar has surged as much as 1.9% since Thursday.

New Zealand manufacturing sales slides

New Zealand's manufacturing sector continues to struggle. Manufacturing sales fell sharply in the second quarter with a 2.9% decline. This was a sharp reversal from the 4.8% in Q1 and well below the market estimate of 4.5% increase.

Manufacturing sales were broadly lower across the sector and are expected to weigh on second-quarter GDP, which will be released next week.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the cash rate to 3.0% last month as it continues to be aggressive. The RBNZ has chopped 225 basis points in the current easing cycle and is expected to continue easing in order to boost the weak economy.

The RBNZ meets next on October 20 and the the third-quarter inflation report just a few days prior will be critical. Inflation jumped to 2.7% in Q2 but that is still within the Reserve Bank's target band of 1-3%. If inflation moves lower, the central bank will have greater flexibility to deliver another rate cut in October.

In the US, the Federal Reserve is poised to deliver a rate hike next week for the first time since December 2024. The weak nonfarm payrolls report has raised the likelihood of a half-point cut to 12%, with a quarter-point cut priced in at 88%, according to CME's FedWatch.

NZD/USD Technical

• NZD/USD has pushed below support at 0.5935 and is testing 0.5937. Below, there is support at 0.5915
• There is resistance at 0.5947 and 0.5955

NZDUSD 4-Hour Chart, September 9, 2025

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