EUR/USD. What is the QCEW Report and Why is It Important?

[Ben Graham]

The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) is a quarterly survey of employment and wages, published annually by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in late August or early September. It is essentially a global "revision" of the monthly employment data. As a benchmark, it is very delayed but more precise and typically has a significant influence on all dollar pairs, including EUR/USD.

The benchmark is closely watched by the Fed—not just for academic purposes. For example, a year ago—in September 2024—the Fed cut rates by 50bps immediately after the QCEW report. The benchmark revision showed that employment growth from April 2023 to March 2024 had been significantly overstated: the total figure was revised down by 818,000 jobs. This was the largest revision in data since 2009.

QCEW is a more accurate indicator than NFP. It's based on employment and wage data obtained from employers through the unemployment insurance (UI) tax system. These data are collected quarterly and cover over 95% of all jobs in the US by sector and region, from the county to the national level. QCEW includes actual payment amounts for the quarter (including bonuses and other payments), making it the most complete and accurate source of information on employment and income. In other words, the benchmark is a "census" based on tax reports.

NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls), in contrast, is based on surveys of about 120,000 businesses (covering around 650–700,000 jobs). This survey is then scaled up to represent the whole economy.

So, the key difference between these reports is in the method of data collection and their degree of accuracy. Nonfarms are "fast" but often not very precise data, while QCEW is delayed data based on actual tax filings that employers must submit to the government.

Today, the BLS published the quarterly employment and wages review for the period from April 2024 to March 2025. The benchmark revision for US nonfarm payroll employment was minus 911,000. This is one of the largest data revisions in recent years, significantly above the average adjustment (around 0.2%).

The final number will be published in six months (in February 2026), and the final result can differ significantly from the preliminary (for example, the final estimate for QCEW 2023/2024 was -668,000, not -818,000 as initially reported). But the report published on Tuesday will make itself felt, and very soon—starting next week when the next Fed meeting convenes (September 16–17).

The QCEW report is perfectly in line with all the other reports in this area (NFP, JOLTS, ADP, Unemployment Claims, ISM Employment Indexes in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors), which have reflected a cooling US labor market. None of the above releases ended up in the "green zone," signaling a slowdown in hiring and an increase in layoffs.

But will the QCEW-2024/2025 report be the trigger for a 50bp rate cut by the Fed at the September meeting? In my view, no. For this reason, the EUR/USD pair ignored the release.

Some analysts now point to the above events from last year, when, after the benchmark revision, the Fed decided to deliver a 50bp cut. Of course, this report played some role in the decision, but it wasn't decisive.

The fact is, at that time, US inflation was slowing: in August 2024, headline CPI fell to 2.5% y/y, and in September to 2.4%. By the time of the September meeting, this number had been falling steadily for four months. As of today, the situation is the opposite: in May, the overall CPI accelerated to 2.4% (from the previous 2.3%); in June, it accelerated to 2.7%. In July, it remained at 2.7%, and according to forecasts, it will increase to 2.9% in August. PPI—both headline and core—is also expected to rise.

In other words, there are no questions now about the state of the US labor market—it's cooling, and that's a fact (as confirmed by the above reports). When it comes to inflation, there's still some intrigue, although all preliminary forecasts point to an acceleration in the key indicators.

How the Fed will act in this situation (when the "ghost of stagflation" has emerged on the horizon) is still an open question—another intrigue to be resolved next week.

For this week, the direction of EUR/USD will depend on the dynamics of PPI and CPI. The first report (Producer Price Index) will be published on Wednesday, September 10. The second (Consumer Price Index) will come out on September 11. PPI/CPI could have a major impact on dollar pairs (especially if the actual results differ substantially from forecasts), so for now, it makes sense to maintain a wait-and-see approach on EUR/USD.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com