Chaos in Eastern Europe – Oil (WTI) prices lagging the move?

[Redator]

Another round of tensions have arised in Eastern Europe since this weekend's largest ever attacks from Russia towards Ukraine.

For the first time, Russia launched drones into Poland (from Belarus) and marks one of the first times a NATO and EU member gets attacked since the beginning of the 2022 conflict.

Close to 20 drones were launched and EU Countries jumped to intervene which prevented most impacts except for one polish house that got damaged. Poland invokes article 4 to assemble NATO leaders and we should see what arises from here.

A prolonged war in Eastern Europe adds to disruptions in the Oil Market but with Russia flooding its buyers with super cheap petrol, prices have been holding down.

Recent increased turmoil in the Middle East have also contributed to a small rebound in Oil prices from their relative lows, but the commodity is still far from actively bid.

Are markets disregarding upside risks to further Oil market disruptions?

We'll have a look at a multi-timeframe chart analysis to attempt to see if something is preparing for WTI – Ahead of the June Israel-Iran spikes, a breakout had started to occur for those who were not watching.

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US Oil multi-timeframe technical analysis

WTI Daily Chart

WTI Oil Daily Chart, September 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The daily picture offers interesting patterns that denote at least a slowdown in the selling that had been regaining strength in the first week of September due to a supplemented OPEC+ supply, downward economic prospects and continuing wars.

However, a double bottom (not showing strong reactions signs for now) but also a rising and diverging RSI momentum, a sign of potential reversal.

A potential daily flag formation could also be into play, but its shape is a bit extended due to the previous June Israel-Iran war spikes – It will be interesting to see what happens if Markets rise to test the descending flag triangle trendline.

WTI 8H Chart

WTI Oil 8H Chart, September 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Looking closer to 8H Chart demarks the price action still evolving within a shorter-timeframe descending channel.

Having recently tested its lows, buyers will have to show up to avoid rangebound action or further downside momentum, particularly after having formed a double bottom.

A failure to hold the most recent lows ($61.84) would not see much support between the $60 level.

The price action is still hesitant, held by the 50-period MA currently at $64 and will be a key barometer for future price action.

Levels to place on your WTI Oil Charts:

Resistance Levels

• $64 50-period Moving Average
• Higher timeframe pivot $66
• July mid-range $67 resistance

Support Levels

• May range Support $63 to $64 (currently testing)
• Current lows $61.84
• $60.5 Low of May Range

WTI 1H Chart

WTI Oil 1H Chart, September 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Looking even closer to the intraday chart, we spot a small upward trendline that bulls will try to maintain to break the $63.94 highs.

Some strong resistance is holding prices from a higher break for now and will be in focus for future action.

Keep an eye on the Eastern Europe headlines.

Safe Trades!

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