USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

The USD/CHF pair is struggling to maintain its recovery momentum after bouncing from 0.7915 — the lowest level since July 23 — balancing between moderate gains and minor losses. Prices remain below the psychological level of 0.8000, as market participants exercise caution ahead of key U.S. inflation data that could provide a notable impulse for the pair.

During the North American session today, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be released, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) tomorrow. Since the market has already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting, these indicators will significantly shape expectations regarding the scope of future monetary easing. The results will serve as the main guide for short-term dollar fluctuations and determine the next stage of USD/CHF movement.

At the same time, positive market dynamics are being restrained by rising geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty. Israel has carried out an airstrike targeting Hamas leadership in Doha, the capital of Qatar. Meanwhile, Poland has raised the combat readiness of its air defense systems. In parallel, U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the European Union to impose 100% tariffs on imports from China and India, aiming to increase pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. These factors support the Swiss franc as a safe-haven currency, limiting the growth of USD/CHF.

Today, it is also worth paying close attention to the speech by Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel, as it may provide short-term market opportunities. Nevertheless, the above-mentioned fundamentals suggest waiting for stronger buying activity before confirming that spot prices have reached a short-term bottom.

From a technical standpoint, oscillators on the daily chart are negative. Prices are trading below the 9-day EMA, which currently runs around the 0.8000 round level. Since the 9-day EMA is also positioned below the 14-day EMA, this indicates that prices are not yet ready for a broader upward move.

Therefore, traders anticipating a reversal of the pair should exercise caution.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com