Dow Jones (DJIA) Technical: Poised for a potential bullish breakout as US CPI looms

[Ben Graham]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lagged its peers since the recent Fed Chair Powell’s dovish speech in Jackson Hole on 22 August 2025, which signaled a change of monetary policy stance from a “wait and see” approach to a more proactive one to address the risk of a deterioration in the US labour market.

Fig. 1: Performances of S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA & Russell 2000 from 22 Aug 2025 to 10 Sep 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)

From 22 August to Tuesday, 10 September 2025, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 advanced 1% and 1.5% respectively, both setting fresh record highs. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 0.7%, while in contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3% over the same period (see Fig. 1).

All three major US stock indices, apart from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, advanced on expectations of a more dovish Fed ahead of the 17 September FOMC meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, Fed Funds futures now fully price in a 25 bps cut to 4.00%–4.25%, with high odds of additional 25 bps cuts at the 29 October (85%) and 10 December (73%) meetings, potentially bringing rates down to 3.50%–3.75% by year-end.

Let’s now review the short-term technical picture of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average) and key levels to watch ahead of the US CPI data release.

Fig. 1: US Wall Street 30 CFD minor trend as of 11 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

Bullish consolidation within a minor uptrend phase that is still in place from the 1 August 2025 low for the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index.

Bullish bias with 45,290/45,175 as the key short-term pivotal support zone, and a clearance above 45,780 sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 46,060/46,180 and 46,365/46,400 (Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 2).

Key elements

• The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index have continued to trade above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 13 August 2025 and 1 August 2025. These observations suggest the minor and medium-term uptrend phases of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index remain intact.
• The sideways movement of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index in place since the 22 August 2025 minor swing high has evolved into a bullish continuation/consolidation configuration called “Ascending Triangle” with its range resistance at 45,780.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index has managed to stage a rebound on Wednesday, 10 September, after a retest of its parallel ascending support, which suggests a short-term bullish momentum revival.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

A break below the 45,290/45,175 key support invalidates the bullish tone for an extension of the minor corrective decline to expose the next supports at 45,945 and 44,715 (also close to the 50-day moving average).

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