Inflation hurts Trump's ratings, courts shield Fed, and AI lifts Oracle to top: trader's calendar on September 11 and 12

[Ben Graham]

Larry Ellison has unexpectedly dethroned Elon Musk as the world's richest individual. Ellison's fortune surged to $393 billion, while Musk's net worth now stands at $385 billion. The dramatic shift is explained by a staggering single-day increase in Ellison's wealth—over $100 billion. The backdrop could hardly be more favorable. The S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq rose 0.3%, with both indices hitting new all-time highs, while the Dow Jones was little changed. Markets were buoyed by a weaker-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report. In August, it unexpectedly dropped by 0.1%, and the July figure was revised lower.

On an annual basis, inflation metrics also cooled, easing market concerns and bolstering expectations for monetary easing. According to JPMorgan and Fitch, the Federal Reserve could cut rates by 0.25% at its next meeting. Now, focus shifts to Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Any signal of further cooling inflation would solidify expectations for rate cuts in September and the fall. The technology sector continues to drive gains.

Oracle shares skyrocketed nearly 35% after the company unveiled an ambitious forecast for its cloud business. Nvidia climbed 3.7% and Broadcom rose 6%. In contrast, Apple shares fell 1.6% amid disappointment over the new iPhone 17. The overarching trend is clear. According to Forbes, the net worth of America's richest has reached a new record high of $6.6 trillion, up $1.2 trillion in just one year. Not long ago, Musk had held the top spot with a net worth peaking at $428 billion. He was the first business to cross the $400 billion mark. Ellison was second at $276 billion, and Mark Zuckerberg was third with $253 billion. The balance of power has been reshuffled.

Shifts are taking shape in the balance of power in the US central bank. The Senate Banking Committee has approved Steven Miran, Donald Trump's nominee, for a seat on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The decision was strictly along party lines:

- Republicans voted in favor

- Democrats unanimously opposed

The next step is a full Senate vote, which could take place as soon as Monday. This would allow Miran to take office in time for the Fed meeting on September 16–17. Given his rhetoric in favor of monetary easing, there is little doubt about where he stands. Miran will replace Adriana Kugler, who stepped down in August, giving Trump an opportunity to tighten his hold over the central bank.

This is precisely what has fueled such a strong reaction from Democrats. Senator Elizabeth Warren warned her colleagues: "Donald Trump needs a scapegoat and a diversion, and that's what he's doing with the Fed." She described Miran's nomination as part of a campaign to fill the board with loyalists. "When the Fed loses its credibility, businesses and consumers stop trusting it to control inflation and start acting like inflation is here to stay – that raises prices across the board for American families in the long-run," she said.

Tensions have escalated further after Miran admitted during hearings that, even if confirmed to the Fed, he does not intend to resign as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. Instead, he plans to take a leave of absence from the White House and return to his position there after his brief term at the Fed. Legal counsel has confirmed that this is technically permissible, but Democrats consider it unacceptable. They have sent Miran a letter demanding he step down from his White House post.

"It is ludicrous to contend that you could exercise independent judgment regarding monetary policy and financial regulation," the letter states. The senators also cited a 2023 tweet by Miran in which he wrote, "No person on the planet can go from highly political operative to politically neutral just because he or she gets a promotion," arguing that this casts doubt on his independence. Miran, for his part, maintains that he is ready to act independently, relying on his own analysis of the economy and climate policy.

However, he refused to disclose the content of his conversations with the president. Senator Warren and her colleagues view this as a concerning development, suggesting that Miran's appointment could be part of a broader effort by Trump to assert greater control over the Federal Reserve. Interestingly, as recently as March last year, Miran proposed reforms for the central bank in an essay for the Manhattan Institute, suggesting:

• shortening the 14-year term of Fed governors
• increasing presidential oversight
• nationalizing the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks by transferring them under state governors' control

He described this approach as a way to "increase the democratic legitimacy" of the central bank.

On Tuesday evening, a federal court in Washington, D.C., blocked Donald Trump's decision to remove Lisa Cook from her seat on the Fed Board of Governors. Judge Jia Cobb emphasized: "Removal was

not meant to be based on the President's assumptions about the official's future performance as extrapolated from unproven conduct dating from before they assumed the office." Essentially, the mortgage fraud allegations used in the case failed to meet the legal requirement of "reasonable cause" for dismissal.

However, as sources note, the White House is preparing an appeal. Administration spokesperson Kush Desai maintains the opposite: "President Trump lawfully removed Lisa Cook for cause due to credible allegations of mortgage fraud from her highly sensitive position overseeing financial institutions on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors."

The pause in Donald Trump's decision to fire Lisa Cook from the Fed Board allows her to remain in office until the court process concludes. Still, the key question—will Cook be able to participate in the FOMC meeting on September 16–17?—remains unanswered. Cook was appointed to the Board of Governors in 2022 on the initiative of then-President Joe Biden. Her term at the Federal Reserve is set to run until 2038.

Donald Trump's flagship initiative—implementing tariff duties—remains tied up in the courts. Nevertheless, the US president continues to move forward on this front. Early Monday morning, another round of changes to White House tariff policy took effect. This latest adjustment revises the scheme of so-called reciprocal duties, as stipulated in a presidential order published only on Friday evening. As a result, some products have now been granted exemptions, while others face additional tariffs.

The most notable development was the removal of gold bullion from the tariff list. Just a month ago, Trump had promised to lift duties on gold after concerns about potential tariffs stoked volatility in the precious metals market. Ultimately, gold and certain other items have been added to the exemptions list, while a number of goods have simultaneously been made subject to duties. In particular, tariffs now apply to aluminum hydroxide, resins, and silicone products. The status of a range of other products remains unchanged.

However, the text of the order strongly suggests that some items could qualify for relief in the future. The administration has designated four priority categories:

• Certain aircraft and spare parts
• Non-patented pharmaceuticals
• Rare natural resources
• Agricultural products are not produced in sufficient quantities domestically

Bananas fall into the latter group. Previously imported almost duty-free, they are now subject to a 9.2% tariff. Because domestic production is limited (mainly in Hawaii, Florida, and Puerto Rico), this essentially acts as a consumer tax. Legal experts note the changes are strategic in nature. Ted Murphy of Sidley Austin points out that the president's authority to impose and adjust tariffs with as little as three days' notice makes it difficult for companies to engage in long-term planning.

But the issue is broader. The reciprocal tariff authority used by Trump has already been ruled unlawful by two courts, and the matter now rests with the Supreme Court. A decision is expected in the coming weeks. According to Henrietta Treyz, head of Veda Partners, the base case is a ruling against Trump: "My base case with 50% to 65% odds is that the Supreme Court will side with the two lower courts and say the president doesn't have this authority." The White House sees things differently. Scott Bessent said Sunday that he is "confident" that President Donald Trump's tariff plan "will win" at the Supreme Court.

Still, the US Treasury Secretary has acknowledged that an unfavorable ruling would severely weaken Trump's position in trade negotiations. At the same time, Trump continues to insist there is no inflation in the country, although rising prices remain the main weakness in his economic policy. Recent polls reveal a "double screen" effect:

• The public increasingly identifies inflation as the number one problem
• The president, in interviews, claims that prices have dropped on almost everything

On WABC, Trump even asserted, "We have no inflation." This sharply contradicts both public perception and official statistics. Annual price growth remains above the Fed's 2% target. However, a positive development arrived in August: the producer price index unexpectedly dropped 0.1% instead of rising 0.3%. Year-on-year, the figure came in at 2.6%, below the expected 3.3%. For the White House, this is grounds for a victory declaration, and Trump promptly posted: "Just now: no inflation!!!" while again urging the Fed to cut rates.

But the poll numbers are unmistakable.

• According to the Economist, Trump's approval rating on inflation has dropped more than on any other issue—down more than 30 points.
• RealClearPolitics now shows just 38.8% approval versus nearly 60% disapproval.
• By comparison, his overall support stands at 45.2%.
• CBS polling finds only 36% of Americans are satisfied with the inflation policy.
• Moreover, 65% believe the president's policies will push food prices higher.
• Sixty-two percent oppose new tariffs.
• Four in ten have already cut back spending because of higher duties.
• Reuters data tells a similar story: just 30% say Trump's actions have helped households lower their cost of living.

At the same time, the president is openly pressuring the Federal Reserve to ease policy and is even considering a review of the inflation target itself. On social media, he approvingly cited Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Management, who called the 2% target too low and too strict and accused Jerome Powell of terrible job performance. In other words, Trump continues to push the narrative that inflation has been defeated, even though both public opinion and official statistics indicate otherwise.

September 11, 2:00 / Japan / **/Reuters Tankan Manufacturers Index, September (leading indicator) / prev.: 7 points/ actual: 9 points / forecast: 10 points / USD/JPY – lower

The Reuters Tankan index for Japanese manufacturers rose to +9 in August from +7 in July, marking the second consecutive month of gains. Sentiment received a boost from the trade agreement with the United States, which includes a reduction in tariffs on automobiles and certain goods to 15% in exchange for a $550 billion investment package from Tokyo. The most notable improvement was seen in the transport equipment sector, where the index jumped to +25 from +9 the previous month. However, forecasts suggest that optimism may weaken in the coming months. If the September reading reaches +10, this would further strengthen the yen.

September 11, 2:50 / Japan /**/ Producer Price Inflation, August / prev.: 2.9% / actual: 2.6% / forecast: 2.7% / USD/JPY – lower

Producer prices in Japan rose 2.6% in July after a 2.9% increase the previous month, marking the slowest annual pace in a year. Declines were noted in most categories, including transport equipment (1.7% vs. 2.2%), food products (4.2% vs. 4.5%), and electrical equipment (2.9% vs. 3.3%). Deeper drops were observed in metals and petrochemicals, with steel prices down 6.2% and chemicals down 3.6%. On a monthly basis, the index edged up 0.2%, in line with expectations. If August's increase is 2.7%, it would suggest stabilization in price trends, which could lend support to the yen.

September 11, 4:00 AM / Australia /**/ Inflation expectations in September (leading) / prev.: 4.7% / actual: 3.9% / forecast: 3.9% / AUD/USD – volatile

Consumer inflation expectations in Australia fell to 3.9% in August from 4.7% a month earlier. This is the lowest level since March. The decline coincided with the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting the rate to 3.6%, the lowest level in two years. According to the Melbourne Institute, headline inflation held at 2.4% earlier this year, while the core figure dropped to 2.9%, close to the lower boundary of the target range. Weaker price pressure and a dovish central bank policy are adding to currency volatility. If the September figure holds at 3.9%, the impact on the exchange rate will be limited.

September 11, 3:15, 3:45 PM / Eurozone /***/ ECB rate decision, press conference / prev.: 2.15% / actual: 2.15% / forecast: 2.15% / EUR/USD – up

In July, the ECB kept its key refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit rate at 2.0%. This confirmed the end of the easing cycle after eight cuts in a year, making borrowing the cheapest since late 2022. According to Christine Lagarde, the regulator is "in a good place," though risks from US tariffs create uncertainty for the inflation outlook. Inflation in the eurozone reached the 2% target in June, which justified the pause in policy changes. If the September meeting again confirms rates on hold, the euro will receive additional support.

September 11, 3:30 PM / US /***/ Consumer inflation growth in August / prev.: 2.7% / actual: 2.7% / forecast: 2.9% / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up

Annual US inflation in July held steady at 2.7% (third month in a row). Price pressure was driven by:

• used cars (+4.8%)
• transportation services (+3.5%)
• food +2.9% (unchanged from June)

Housing slowed to 3.7%, while energy declined more sharply at -1.6%. Gasoline and fuel oil continued to fall, while gas remained expensive (+13.8%). On a monthly basis, the index rose by 0.2% after 0.3% in the previous month. If August inflation accelerates to 2.9%, it will strengthen the dollar on the currency market.

September 11, 3:30 PM / US /***/ Core consumer inflation growth in August / prev.: 2.9% / actual: 3.1% / forecast: 3.1% / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up

The US core consumer price index in July rose by 3.1% after gaining 2.9% in the previous month. This is the highest in five months. The acceleration was driven by increases in:

• medical services (+3.5%)
• household goods (+3.4%)
• auto insurance (+5.3%)
• recreation (+2.4%)

Housing costs rose by 3.7%, slowing relative to June. On a monthly basis, the index added 0.3%, the strongest increase in six months. If the August figure confirms 3.1%, the dollar will gain additional upward momentum.

September 11, 3:30 PM / US /**/ Weekly initial jobless claims / prev.: 229K / actual: 237K / forecast: 240K / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down

Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 8K to 237K at the end of August. This is the highest in two months and above expectations of 230K. Continuing claims, by contrast, fell for the second consecutive week to 1.94M, the lowest in five months. Such mixed signals point to a gradual weakening of the labor market. If the early September figure approaches the forecast of 240K, the dollar will come under pressure.

September 12, 1:30 AM / New Zealand /**/ Business NZ Manufacturing PMI in August / prev.: 48.8 / actual: 52.8 / forecast: 51.5 / NZD/USD – down

New Zealand's manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 in July from 48.8 a month earlier. New orders and output indices reached their highest levels since 2022. Employment also improved, returning to expansion after two months of decline. However, more than half of the surveyed companies pointed to persistent issues:

• weak demand
• high costs
• economic uncertainty

If the August reading confirms 51.5, it may limit the outlook for the New Zealand dollar.

September 12, 2:01 AM / UK /**/ House prices in August / prev.: -7% / actual: -13% / forecast: -10% / GBP/USD – up

According to RICS, the UK house price balance fell to -13% in July from -7% a month earlier. This is the weakest reading in a year and below expectations of improvement. Price growth continued only in Scotland and Northern Ireland, while East Anglia saw a sharp decline. In the short term, a further moderate decrease is forecast, but respondents expect a gradual recovery over a 12-month horizon. If the August figure comes in at -10%, the pound may strengthen.

September 12, 7:30 AM / Japan /***/ Industrial production growth in August (final) / prev.: -2.4% / actual: 4.4% / forecast: -0.9% / USD/JPY – up

Industrial production in Japan fell by 0.9% in July after rising by 4.4% in the previous month. The dynamics remain volatile. The figures swing between steep declines and sharp gains, reflecting the sector's vulnerability to fluctuations in external demand and trade policy. According to METI, the long-term average drop is 4.4%. If the August result shows a -0.9% decline, it will confirm a slowdown in manufacturing activity and may limit yen strengthening.

September 12, 9:00 AM / Germany /***/ Consumer inflation growth in August (final) / prev.: 2.0% / actual: 2.0% / forecast: 2.2% / EUR/USD – up

Annual inflation in Germany accelerated to 2.2% in July from 2% a month earlier. This was the highest since March and above market expectations. Price growth was supported by food (+2.5%) and a slower decline in energy prices (-2.4% vs. -3.4%). Services kept inflation steady at 3.1%, while the core figure stood at 2.7%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.1%. If the August result confirms 2.2%, this will strengthen the euro.

September 12, 9:00 AM / UK /***/ GDP growth in July / prev.: 0.9% / actual: 1.4% / forecast: 1.1% / GBP/USD – down

The UK economy grew by 1.4% in June after a revised 0.9% in May. This was the fastest pace since February and better than the 1.1% forecast. The acceleration indicates a revival in business activity. If July growth confirms 1.1%, this may weaken the pound.

September 12, 9:00 AM / UK /**/ Industrial production growth in July / prev.: -0.2% / actual: 0.2% / forecast: 1.1% / GBP/USD – up

UK industrial production rose by 0.2% in June, reversing a decline from the previous month. If the July figure reaches 1.1%, it will signal sector recovery and support the pound.

September 12, 1:30, 3:00 PM / Russia /**/ Bank of Russia interest rate decision, press conference / prev.: 20.0% / actual: 18.0% / forecast: 16.0% / USD/RUB – up

In July, the Bank of Russia cut its key rate by 2.0% to 18%. This matched market expectations and continued the course of easing credit conditions. According to the regulator, disinflationary processes proved stronger than previously forecast, while high borrowing costs restrained business activity and consumer demand. Gradual labor market weakness was also noted amid workforce outflows. If the regulator lowers the rate to 16% ai its September meeting, the ruble will come under pressure.

September 12, 3:30 PM / Canada /**/ Building permits in July (m/m) / prev.: 12.8% / actual: -9.0% / forecast: 3.7% / USD/CAD – down

In Canada, the value of building permits fell to -9% m/m in June, totaling 12 billion Canadian dollars. This was the sharpest drop since June 2024 and fully offset May's 12.8% increase. The main decline came from non-residential buildings in Ontario, where the institutional sector dropped by CAD 1.4 billion. Meanwhile, industrial construction showed growth (+193M). The residential segment also contracted, mainly due to multi-unit projects in British Columbia. Despite this, on an annual basis, total permits rose by 6.9%. If the July figure adds 3.7%, this will strengthen the Canadian dollar.

September 12, 5:00 PM / US /***/ University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in September (leading) / prev.: 61.7 / actual: 58.2 / forecast: 58.0 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down

In August, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 58.2 from 61.7 a month earlier. This was the first decline in four months and the weakest reading since spring. The sharpest deterioration was in assessments of conditions for major purchases, which dropped to a one-year low. Survey participants also expressed concern about inflation and labor market prospects. Expectations for personal finances remained stable. If the September figure comes in at 58, it will confirm weak consumer sentiment and put pressure on the US dollar.

September 12, 7:00 PM / Russia /**/ GDP growth in Q2 / prev.: 3.3% / actual: 1.4% / forecast: 1.1% / USD/RUB – up

Russia's economy grew by 1.1% in Q2 compared to 1.4% in Q1 and 4% a year earlier. The slowdown is linked to high borrowing costs and weaker consumer activity. The effect of higher defense spending, which supported the economy last year, is gradually fading. According to the central bank, annual growth will only be 1-2%, while the Ministry of Economic Development is preparing to revise its 2.5% forecast downward. If the actual figure confirms 1.1%, this will increase pressure on the ruble.

September 11, 2:15 AM / New Zealand / Speech by Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Christian Hawkesby / NZD/USD

September 11, 11:30 AM / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Supervisory Board's Sharon Donnery / EUR/USD

September 11, 3:45 PM / Eurozone / Speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde / EUR/USD

September 12, 5:00 AM / Australia / Speech by Reserve Bank of Australia's Brad Jones / AUD/USD

Also during these days, speeches by representatives of major central banks are expected. Their comments typically trigger volatility in the currency market, as they may indicate regulators' future rate policy.

The full economic calendar is available via the link. All figures are shown year-on-year (y/y). Where data is calculated month-on-month (m/m), this is indicated separately. The * symbol marks the importance of the report (in ascending order) for assets available on the InstaForex platform. Please note that publication time is Moscow time (GMT +3.00). You can open a trading account here. To keep your tools always at hand, we recommend downloading the MobileTrader app. Also, watch the market video news from InstaForex Group.

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