Anglo-Teck $53B merger may topple Escondida as copper leader

[Redator]

Anglo American (LON: AAL) and Teck Resources’ (TSX: TECK.A, TECK.B)(NYSE: TECK) planned $53-billion merger could create the world’s largest copper mine by the early 2030s, surpassing BHP’s Escondida in Chile, according to analysts.

The centrepiece of the deal is the integration of Teck’s Quebrada Blanca (QB) mine with Anglo’s Collahuasi operation. Together, they could generate about one million tonnes of copper annually, industry analysts say. “It is absolutely feasible that a Collahuasi-QB complex could surpass Escondida’s level of copper out-turn in the early 2030s,” said CRU Group analyst William Tankard.

A proposed 15-kilometre conveyor would link Collahuasi’s high-grade ore to QB’s processing facilities, adding the equivalent of a new mine’s output. The system is projected to deliver an extra 175,000 tonnes of copper per year between 2030 and 2049, at lower costs and shorter timelines than a standalone development.

A 15-km (9.3-mile) conveyor would be built to feed Collahuasi’s high-quality ore into QB’s new processing plants. (Click on map to enlarge)

If completed, the combined Anglo Teck would rank among the world’s top five copper producers, with 1.35 million tonnes in output a year. It would also mark the mining sector’s biggest transaction of the decade. 

The companies project $800 million in annual pretax synergies, and up to $1.4 billion in additional EBITDA gains from shared procurement and operational efficiencies. “I think it’s conservative,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at Ninety One, wrote this week. “The optionality to expand and develop that complex over multiple decades is not in that number.”

QB fixes ‘critical’

Execution risks loom large. Teck’s QB mine has struggled with cost overruns, pit instability, plant outages, and waste-storage issues. Anglo American, meanwhile, does not fully control Collahuasi, where Glencore (LON: GLEN) and other partners hold significant stakes. 

Analysts caution that operational fixes at QB are critical before the combined complex can challenge Escondida.

Teck hits pause on growth to fix Chile copper mine

Wood Mackenzie values Teck at $10.8 billion on a post-tax, sum-of-the-parts basis: $13.8 billion from copper and $1.1 billion from zinc, offset by S$4.1 billion in central costs through 2040. That estimate excludes potential synergies with Collahuasi, QB’s growth options and a life extension at the Red Dog mine, but also factors in downside risk from QB’s operational setbacks.

(With files from Bloomberg)

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