Forecast for GBP/USD on September 16, 2025

[Ben Graham]

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued to rise on Monday, worked through the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620, and on Tuesday morning closed above it. Thus, the pound continues to gain momentum, bulls keep attacking, and quotes keep rising toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% – 1.3708.

The wave structure continues to shift to a bullish stance. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the last peak. Therefore, the trend can currently be considered bullish. The news background does not allow bears to launch a serious offensive.

On Monday, traders received no significant data, but bulls still kept pressing, as nothing positive for the U.S. dollar is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. On Wednesday evening, the FOMC may take a more dovish stance than markets expect, while on Thursday afternoon the Bank of England will maintain its current monetary policy parameters. These two factors alone are enough for bulls to keep building positions. This morning, three reports came out in the UK but did not affect traders' sentiment. The unemployment rate in July remained at 4.7%, the number of new unemployed rose by 17,400 (broadly in line with forecasts), and wage growth came in at 4.8% (also in line with expectations). Thus, the statistics were neutral. Tomorrow morning, the UK will release the Consumer Price Index, the final report before the BoE meeting. I am sure the regulator will take this report into account, especially if inflation accelerates again, contrary to forecasts. Either way, inflation in Britain is rising, which prevents the MPC from rushing into policy easing. And the pound continues to benefit from central bank actions. In 2025, virtually everything is in favor of the pound and the euro.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues its upward move after consolidating above the 1.3378–1.3435 zone. Thus, growth may extend toward the next corrective level of 127.2% – 1.3795. The chart picture is currently mixed, with traders pushing the pair back and forth. At the moment, I advise paying more attention to the hourly chart, where there are more levels and it is easier to work with waves. No emerging divergences are seen on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders did not change over the last reporting week. The number of long positions among speculators decreased by 1,213, while shorts fell by 748. The gap between longs and shorts now stands at roughly 75,000 versus 109,000. Still, the pound leans toward growth, and traders lean toward buying.

In my view, the pound still faces downside risks. The news background in the first six months of the year was disastrous for the U.S. dollar, but it is gradually stabilizing. Trade tensions are easing, major deals are being signed, and the U.S. economy should recover in Q2 thanks to tariffs and investments. At the same time, prospects of Fed policy easing in the second half of the year have already created strong pressure on the dollar, as the U.S. labor market weakens and unemployment rises. Therefore, I see no grounds for a "dollar trend" just yet.

News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• UK – Unemployment rate (06:00 UTC).
• UK – Change in average hourly earnings (06:00 UTC).
• UK – Change in claimant count (06:00 UTC).
• U.S. – Retail sales (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Industrial production (13:15 UTC).

On September 16, the economic calendar featured five entries, three of which had already been released and did not affect trader sentiment. The news background will continue to influence market sentiment on Tuesday.

GBP/USD forecast and trader tips:

Selling the pair is possible on a rebound from the 1.3708 level on the hourly chart with the target at the 1.3611–1.3620 zone. Buying was possible after closing above the 1.3611–1.3620 zone with the target at 1.3708.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3586–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

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