GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Today, Tuesday, the GBP/JPY pair ended a four-day rally, reaching levels not seen since July 2024 — around 200.75, set the day before. Nevertheless, prices are still holding above the psychological level of 200.00.

Today's UK wage report and Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) release are expected to provide key insights into inflation trends and their impact on monetary policy. Stronger-than-expected CPI figures could further reduce the likelihood of an imminent Bank of England rate cut, with its decision due Thursday. Such a scenario could support the British pound and attract buyers on declines in GBP/JPY.

Ahead of key data releases, the Japanese yen, which has generally strengthened, is pressuring spot prices. Domestic political turbulence does not appear to prevent investors from expecting the Bank of Japan to continue normalizing policy. However, uncertainty about the timing and pace of rate hikes may limit yen strength, preventing deeper losses in GBP/JPY.

An additional supportive factor is the positive sentiment in equity markets and the general risk-on trend, which could offer moderate support to GBP/JPY. For this reason, before confirming that the pair has peaked, it is reasonable to wait for stronger selling pressure.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, with the 9-day EMA positioned above the 14-day EMA, confirming the bullish bias of the pair. Accordingly, the path of least resistance remains upward. Still, the pair is likely to undergo some correction in the near term.

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