Swiss franc leads majors as US session begins and reclaims 2025 crown

[Ben Graham]

European currencies are having a fantastic year, with the CHF, the Euro, and GBP achieving their best performance since the early 2000s.

With US President Trump doing everything he can to devalue the US dollar (tariffs, beefs with other countries, menacing the Fed's Independence, and Jerome Powell), and on the other side of the Atlantic, EU countries allying to boost productivity in the years to come, the conditions for such outperformance are optimal.

Regarding basic economics, one thing to watch for Europe and Switzerland could be a too-strong currency, which would impair exports in an already-cooling economy (and crippled with 39% tariffs with the US).

In fact, Switzerland has been in deflation since May 2025. While its economy continues to grow slowly, such economic activity is not expected to hold up much given the recent SNB dovishness.

In the current state of geopolitics, participants looking for safety have had enough of a yen that loses too much in Carry due to historically low rates and have come back to the Swissie in search of value amid a less-competitive dollar.

2025 Currency Performance, September 16, 2025 – Source: InvestingLive.com

This nice graph offered by InvestingLive depicts how strong the geographic trends (mentioned through many of our previous pieces) guide Forex performance.

European currencies are leading with the new shift in narrative, followed by APAC (JPY, NZD and AUD) and finally North-American currencies which have struggled quite a lot.

Tomorrow should be interesting as traders really are pre-selling the US Dollar in what seems to be rushed-hedges for a dovish FOMC.

Any hawkishness or even a more neutral than dovish tone, and/or mentioning of tariff uncertainty should lead to consequent mean-reversion for the USD.

More mentions towards labor market weakness and one time tariff price hikes would be confirming the USD down-move.

Up about 0.50% as we speak, let's have a look at USDCHF multi-timeframe charts to gain our edge on potential reversal or continuation levels for the pair.

Read More:

• Guide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watch
• Breaking News: US August Retail Sales at 5.0% Y/Y vs 3.2% expected, beats consensus

USDCHF multi-timeframe analysis ahead of the FOMC

USDCHF Daily chart

USDCHF Daily Chart, September 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Despite a strong rebound in the USD in July followed by a monthly consolidation in August, the selling in CHFUSD has started to accelerate since the September NFP release, breaching 0.80 psychological level.

The first time the level was breached in 2025 was in mid-June, when Powell testified. Early July consequently saw a huge reversal higher in the pair.

The breakdown has happened on a few strong bear bars and bears should soon face the 2025 0.7875 Lows support, with prices entering that region.

Daily RSI still has place for movement and is not showing signs of upward tilt – However, one cannot forget that things may change in a flash in tomorrow's FOMC announcement.

USDCHF 4H Chart

USDCHF 4H Chart, September 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The ongoing price action is a solid tight bear channel, with traders rushing to exit and hedge their positions before tomorrow's huge trading Session.

Reactions will be interesting as this morning saw another rejection of the 50-period MA at the conjunction of the 2025 downward trendline, which led a huge descent in prices.

USDCHF is now trading around the middle of a freshly formed channel (with the 2025 downtrend) and with oversold RSI conditions, it will be interesting to spot what traders look to do looking forward.

Trading Levels for USDCHF

Daily Resistance Levels

• 0.7970 MA 50
• 0.80 psychological level
• Long-term pivot 0.80 Zone (0.80 to 0.81)
• Main resistance 0.8150 to 0.82 (last highs 0.8165)
• May 2025 highs 0.8475 Resistance Zone

Daily Support Levels

• 0.7890 current daily lows and counting (and middle of downward channel)
• 0.7840 to 0.7875 2025 lows
• 0.77 to 0.7735 August 2011 lows

USDCHF 1H Chart

USDCHF 1H Chart, September 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView

A measured move would place the pair to new lows in 2025 as the imminent selling accelerates after the Retail Sales data.

On the other hand, watch for the way oversold levels – The tight bull channel is expected to hold as long as no bull candle closes above the previous one, so sellers are tightly in control for now.

Watch price action in any close above the 0.7950 short-term pivot zone and any potential acceleration above 0.80. If the current trend continues, look at the 2011 support levels.

Safe Trades and successful trading ahead of the FOMC!

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