Gold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) find selling pressure from the post-FOMC stronger US dollar

[Ben Graham]

Gold and Silver are subject to immediate pressure as the US Dollar regains strength and reputation after yesterday's FOMC meeting.

The challenged independence of the Fed was a major driver behind the immense rally metals enjoyed from late August into early September, as Powell’s shift in tone from the Jackson Hole conference cast doubt on the Fed’s consistency amid still high inflation.

Yet the dovish stance advocated by Bowman and Waller, seen as President Trump's protege-appointees ahead of the Sep FOMC—was vindicated by subsequent NFP misses and the downward revisions in BLS data.

This is leading to the Federal Reserve regaining back some of its lost confidence throughout the past few months.

Dollar Index and Metals comparative Performance since beginning August, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Silver rallied 18.67% from its July 31st trough to its Tuesday peak, while Gold surged from $3,268 on July 30th to fresh all-time highs at $3,707.

Despite the ongoing pullback, prices remain near their highs.

Still, the balance is tilting towards a more neutral trend: With Powell delivering a less dovish message than markets had priced in, the renewed resilience of the US Dollar could set the stage for tighter price action ahead.

Let's dive into two timeframe charts for both Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to see where the current trading takes us and where to look going forward.

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Gold and Silver two-timeframe picture

Gold (XAUUSD) Daily Chart

Gold (XAUUSD) Daily Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Gold responded remarkably to the technical-Fibonacci induced resistance mentioned in our most recent Gold analysis.

We precedently expressed how overbought levels don't imply tops, particularly amid strong performance and momentum.

However, Daily RSI is starting to shape downwards and may not help to sustain the current levels.

There is still an ongoing consolidation that is happening from the intermediate lows, which demands a closer look.

Gold (XAUUSD) 2H Chart and levels

Gold (XAUUSD) 2H Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Selling momentum is currently stalling but the bigger timeframe outlook is showing signs of slowdown within the current trend, particularly when seeing the broken upward trendline that led to the new $3,707 All-time Highs.

Look for breakouts either above or below the Micro support and resistance zones, with their levels detailed just below.

Levels of interest for Gold trading:

Support:

• Micro support $3,620 to $3,630
• Previous ATH and now long-term Pivot around $3,500 (+/- $15)
• Previous Range Highs $3,400 to $3,450 (minor support)
• $3,300 Major Support
• $3,000 Main psychological level

Resistance and potential technical targets (due to all-time highs, can only use potential targets):

• Micro resistance $3,660 to $3,675
• FOMC and All-time highs Highs $3,707
• Fibonacci-Extension 1 from April Lows to April highs ($3,640 to $3,705) (Immediate resistance)
• Potential, Fibonacci-Extension 2 from 2018 to Oct 2024 induced target: $3,750 to $3,815 (Purple square on Weekly)

Silver (XAGUSD) Daily Chart

Silver (XAGUSD) Daily Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Since our most recent Silver Analysis, prices did effectively break out of its daily upward channel but found technical resistance (to complement the fundamental resistance) at the higher bound of the Higher timeframe channel (in Blue).

Look at the Daily RSI also showing some type of divergence – Overall, despite the action still hanging at the highs, it looks like some intermediate correction might come into play.

Let's have a closer look.

Silver (XAGUSD) 2H Chart and levels

Silver (XAGUSD) 2H Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The selling from this yesterday to this morning's session has stalled a bit and short-term momentum is back to neutral.

Prices are now contained between an short-term resistance and support zone, in the ongoing $41.20 to $42 range.

Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• $42 psychological level and micro-resistance
• 50-Period MA 50 42.17
• $43 to $44 resistance (Most recent peak $42.97)
• August 2011 $44.25 top

Support Levels:

• Micro resistance around $41.20
• $39.50 to $40 key pivot zone
• $38.75 to $39 Key levels
• 2012 Highs Support around 37.50

Safe Trades!

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