USD/JPY Technical: USD strength capped (again) below 148.95 range resistance, BoJ keeps rate hike hopes alive

[Redator]

This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior publication, “USD/JPY Technical: Yen eyeing a medium-term bullish breakout against USD from a 5-month range”, published on 17 September 2025.

The USD/JPY dropped further on Wednesday, 17 September 2025, with an initial intraday loss of -0.7% to print an intraday low of 145.48 before it reversed up higher ex-post FOMC to close higher and erased all its initial losses, reinforced by Fed Chair Powell’s “less dovish” press conference.

The USD/JPY has managed to survive at the 145.95 medium-term support (the lower boundary of the “Ascending Wedge” range configuration) in place since the 22 April 2025 low of 139.89 and rallied by 1.9% in the past two days, from the 17 September 2025 low of 145.48 to the 18 September 2025 high of 148.27.

The 18 September 2025 high of 148.27 of the USD/JPY is just below a key minor range resistance of 148.75/148.95 that keeps the US dollar bulls in check since 12 August 2025.

US dollar’s intraday bearish reversal against the JPY, 2 BoJ officials favoured a rate hike

Fig. 1: 1-day rolling performances of the US dollar against major currencies as of 19 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Interestingly, the USD/JPY shed by -0.5% after the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s monetary policy decision to keep its short-term policy interest rate unchanged at 0.5% as expected for the fifth consecutive meeting (see Fig. 1).

The main trigger of the US dollar's weakness against the Japanese yen was the BoJ officials’ voting patterns. In today’s BoJ’s monetary policy decision meeting, for the first time in 2025, two officials (Takata and Tamura) voted for an interest rate hike to 0.75%, citing that price stability (2% long-term inflation trend target in Japan) had been achieved, and the risks to prices becoming more skewed to the upside.

Let’s now examine fundamental factors.

Fig. 2: Japan overnight interest rate swaps as of 19 Sep 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)

Fig. 3: Yield spreads of US Treasury/JGB with major trend of USD/JPY as of 19 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The overnight index swaps (OIS) market for Japan’s short-term interest rates is still pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) hike to the short-term overnight policy interest rate to 0.75% before 2025 ends.

The 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year OIS rates have continued to widen over the 1-month OIS rates in the past two weeks, where the 1-year OIS rate has increased from 0.67% on 8 September 2025 to 0.73% on Friday, 19 September 2025 at the time of writing (see Fig. 2).

The 2-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield, which is sensitive to changes to the BoJ’s monetary policy stance, has continued its upward trajectory and climbed by to 0.91%, its highest level since 2008.

Hence, the yield premium between the 2-year US Treasury note and the 2-year Japanese Government Bond has continued to narrow steadily since the start of the year. The bearish breakdown of the 2.90% former major support on the week of 18 August 2025 is likely to add impetus for a further potential narrowing of the yield premium towards the next support at 2.05% (see Fig. 3).

This ongoing narrowing process suggests that 2-year US Treasuries have become relatively less attractive versus 2-year JGBs, reducing the yield premium in favour of the dollar. As a result, this dynamic may exert downside pressure on USD/JPY.

Let’s now examine the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective to determine its latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trend bias and key technical levels to watch.

Fig. 4: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 19 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 5: USD/JPY minor trend as of 19 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

Bearish bias below 148.75/148.95 short-term pivotal resistance for USD/JPY within its range configuration for the next intermediate support to come in at 146.30, followed by the medium-term “Ascending Wedge” range support at 145.95 (see Fig. 5)

Only a break with a daily close below 145.95 on the USD/JPY is likely to trigger the start of a medium-term (multi-week) Japanese yen strength against the greenback.

Key elements

• The daily RSI momentum indicator of the USD/JPY has continued to hover below its resistance at the 60 level and printed a “lower high”. These observations suggest the lack of medium-term bullish momentum (see Fig. 4).
• The 148.75/148.95 short-term pivotal resistance of the USD/JPY has also coincided with the key 200-day moving average that has capped dollar bulls' strength since 1 August 2025 (see Fig. 4).
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has exited from its overbought level after it flashed out a bearish divergence condition (see Fig. 5).

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

A clearance above 148.95 invalidates the bearish scenario for the USD/JPY and sees a squeeze up towards the key medium-term resistance of 149.70/149.90 (the upper boundary of the “Ascending Wedge”).

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