EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Redator]

Today, Monday, marks the fourth consecutive day of negative sentiment for the EUR/USD pair, although it is attempting to reverse the trend by trading around the 1.1730 level. The pair's weakness is linked to continued dollar strength following last week's Federal Reserve rate cut. While the Fed did lower the rate for the first time, it did not emphasize the need for an accelerated pace of easing in the coming months. Investors are now awaiting eurozone consumer sentiment data, as well as speeches from a European Central Bank (ECB) representative and members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scheduled for today. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted at the post-meeting press conference that increasing signs of labor market weakness prompted the rate cut decision. The Fed had held rates steady since December due to inflation concerns fueled by tariffs. Powell emphasized that there is no need for swift changes in monetary policy, and the Federal Reserve will make decisions based on data at each upcoming meeting. The Fed's "dot plot" forecasts two additional rate cuts by year-end.

The EUR/USD pair is also under pressure due to worsening conditions within the Eurozone. Last week, massive protests erupted across major cities in France, with hundreds of thousands of citizens rallying against spending cut proposals by former Prime Minister Francois Bayrou. Protesters called on President Emmanuel Macron and newly appointed Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu to abandon the proposed austerity plans.

Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno stated on Friday that a rate cut is likely the next step. He stressed that inflation should not remain below the 2% target for too long, noting that risks to inflation still remain tilted to the downside.

From a technical standpoint, despite the ongoing decline in the pair, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, contradicting the negative overall outlook.

If prices manage to hold above the 1.1730 level, they will likely attempt another move toward the psychological 1.1800 level. However, a drop below the 1.1700 level would increase the odds in favor of the bears.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com