Barrick hits 13-year high as analysts upgrade stock on ‘game-changing’ discovery

[Ben Graham]

Barrick Mining (NYSE: B) (TSX: ABX) rallied to its highest in 13 years, as it builds off the momentum of a “game-changing” gold find in Nevada as well as the broader strength of the precious metals market.

The miner’s Toronto-listed shares shot up by as much as 6% to C$49.33 apiece, its best since early 2012. Its New York-listed shares followed similar moves, with an intraday high of $35.70. The company’s market capitalizations on the respective markets are C$81.7 billion and $59.6 billion.

Barrick’s TSX-listed shares have hit the highest since early 2012. Chart: TradingView

Should Monday’s gains hold, this would be Barrick’s best four-day stretch since 2020, when the stock last traded in the high C$30’s before this year.

Behind the recent rally was a new study on the company’s Fourmile project in Nevada that showed the potential to produce as much as 750,000 oz. of gold annually. Plans are in place to start underground mine development in 2026.

In a press release dated Sept. 16, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow called it “multi-generational project” that has the chance to become the largest and highest-grade gold discovery of the century. The market reacted positively to this news, with Barrick’s share price rising by about 23% since that news release.

The gains were elevated by the rising price of gold, which set multiple records in recent days following the US Federal Reserve’s first rate cut this year. As well, a rebalancing of the GDX index last Friday also helped to lift Barrick’s share price.

Analyst upgrades

Analysts are also agreeing with the improved sentiment, with many including TD Cowen’s Steven Green upgrading their price target for Barrick despite the company being entangled in a long-standing dispute in Mali over one of its largest mines.

“We believe the stock still has significant room to catch up on valuation given its under-performance in recent years,” Green wrote in a Monday note to clients, lifting his price target to $38 a share. He highlighted that the Fourmile project will be a “game changer” that will improve the narrative for the company.

In separate reports, Stifel analyst Ralph Profiti estimated that Fourmile is worth more than $10 billion, while BMO Capital Markets’ Matthew Murphy gave the gold project a value of $9.2 billion.