USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

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On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) confirmed that the base deposit rate would remain unchanged at 0% after completing its quarterly monetary policy review for Q3 2025. This decision was fully in line with market expectations. The central bank ended its rate-cutting cycle after six consecutive reductions, which began in March last year and continued through June this year.

According to the latest SNB statement, Switzerland's GDP growth forecast for 2025 was revised down to 0.2% from the previous 1.0–1.5% range. For 2026, the SNB projects Swiss GDP growth of about 1% (previously 1.0–1.5%). Inflation in the country is forecast to reach 0.0% in Q2 2028.

Globally, economic growth slowed somewhat in the first half of 2025, pressured by U.S. tariffs and persistent uncertainty in world markets. The SNB expects global growth to remain subdued in the coming quarters, while inflation in the U.S. will likely stay elevated, and eurozone inflation is expected to remain close to target.

Key risks include the possibility of rising trade barriers, which could cause a sharper slowdown in the global economy. However, there is also a chance that the world economy will prove more resilient than previously assumed. Switzerland's economic outlook has worsened amid significant U.S. tariff increases, which are expected to negatively affect exports and investment, particularly in sectors such as machinery and watchmaking. Unemployment is also projected to rise further. Overall, the country's economic forecast remains uncertain, with the main risks tied to U.S. trade policy and the broader trajectory of the global economy.

The market's reaction to the SNB's interest rate decision was moderate. The USD/CHF pair is holding below 0.7950 but above support at 0.7940, showing minimal movement after the announcement. At present, the pair's rate has remained virtually unchanged.

The table below shows the percentage changes of the Swiss franc (CHF) against major currencies for today.

The franc showed the strongest performance against the New Zealand dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com