Forecast for GBP/USD on September 25, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday formed a new reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and consolidated below the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3482, working through the support zone of 1.3416–1.3425. A rebound from this zone favored the pound and led to some growth toward 1.3482. A consolidation above this level will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next 100.0% corrective level at 1.3587.

The wave situation has turned "bearish." This happened suddenly and unexpectedly. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, but the last downward wave easily broke the previous low. The news background was mostly neutral for the pound last week, but Thursday and Friday spoiled everything. However, the negative background has already been priced in, so what will the bears rely on for continued pressure?

For the pound, Wednesday did not look threatening, but Andrew Bailey's speech once again prevented it from starting a recovery. Recall that last week, problems with forming next year's budget sparked a wave of criticism of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. The markets have repeatedly criticized Reeves for her actions or inability to resolve financial issues. This week, the pound was recovering for two days until the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, stated that monetary easing could continue despite high inflation. Specifically, Bailey said inflation may keep slowing, which would allow the British regulator to continue monetary easing. In my view, the Bank of England governor did not give the market hope for another rate cut in 2025, but traders drew exactly that conclusion. The pound came under pressure again. In recent days, the stars have aligned in favor of the dollar, but I still believe the overall news background for it remains extremely unfavorable.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar after a "bearish" divergence formed on the CCI indicator and following the Bank of England and Fed meetings. The decline is continuing toward the support zone of 1.3378–1.3435. A rebound from this zone would favor the pound and some growth in the pair. A consolidation below this zone would support continued decline toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.3118.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became sharply more "bullish" in the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 5,947, while the number of short positions decreased by 21,078. The gap between long and short positions now stands at roughly 80,000 versus 87,000. Bullish traders are once again tipping the balance in their favor.

In my opinion, the pound still faces downside prospects. The news background for the U.S. dollar in the first six months of the year was dreadful, but it is slowly improving. Trade tensions are easing, major agreements are being signed, and the U.S. economy will recover in Q2 thanks to tariffs and various investments. At the same time, expectations of Fed monetary easing in the second half of the year have started to put serious pressure on the dollar, with the U.S. labor market weakening and unemployment rising. Thus, I still do not see grounds for a "bearish" trend.

News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• U.S. – Change in durable goods orders (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Change in GDP for Q2 (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Change in initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Existing home sales (14:00 UTC).

On September 25, the economic calendar includes four events, two of which are of major importance. The impact of the news background on market sentiment could be quite strong in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD forecast and trading tips:

Sales of the pair were possible after closing below 1.3482 on the hourly chart, targeting the 1.3416–1.3425 zone. This target was achieved. New sales are possible on a rebound from 1.3482 or after closing below 1.3416–1.3425. Purchases could be considered on a rebound from the 1.3416–1.3425 zone with targets at 1.3482 and 1.3587.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3586–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

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