US Dollar strengthening, but an overall confused market — North American mid-week Market update

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Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.

We are now passed the feared and anticipated September FOMC meeting and since last week, the US Dollar has seen some whipsawing up-down action.

While originally thought that a less-dovish-than expected Powell at the past week's FOMC press conference could invert the downward path in the greenback, comments made yesterday at a Rhode Island conference put-back more emphasis on a weakening job market.

A dovish interpretation of this most recent turnaround has sent the dollar down, but in today's session, the USD is back on a one-way train higher. So what's going on?

Participants are still looking to see more on the US labor market which will decide on further dovishness: The FED independence being attacked seems to be a less emphatic subject in the past few weeks as dovishness from FED members has been confirmed by less encouraging data, and now the idea is that markets are trying to spot if there is still potential for many cuts in 2026 (currently 112 bps priced vs 75 bps implied on the dot plot).

Bank of Canada Macklem still had a few things to say about that in a speech made on Tuesday.

Too, what will be the effect of such cuts on US Dollar demand? If more cuts are in the markets than outlined by the FED, will the dollar rally despite cuts (buy-the-cuts type of market flows)?

And there are some tensions happening on the Geopolitical side, which have historically put a bid to the US Dollar as participants may get more anxious: Europe should slow its indirect Russian oil purchases, which should slow the conflict, but at the same time, Russia keeps testing Eastern Europe nations with aerial border breaches.

Let's take a look at the charts.

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Let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USDCAD and DXY charts.

North-American Indices Performance

North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – September 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The TSX/Nasdaq battle keeps powering through upward weekly performance, and overall North American indices can't find anything to stop them.

European indices on the other hand seem to have found their strength from the beginning of the year totally taken back from them. It has been a while since we haven't seen them demark from other global indices (NA Stocks however are back on top).

Dollar Index 8H Chart

Dollar Index 8H Chart, September 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView

After forming a V-shape bottom after last week's FOMC, the US Dollar seems to be retaking the intermediate edge as other majors have topped.

Less cuts are projected overall, the FED's damaged independence might be less of a concern and the US still stands on top in terms of global performance, despite tariffs (that might end up being invalidated).

Since our previous DXY analysis (still interesting to watch), the greenback has passed above its pivot zone and path for upward action may get more odds looking forward.

Failing to break the 98.00 handle however may lead to rangebound action – still keep an eye on the higher timeframe double bottom that may have now formed.

Levels to watch for the Dollar Index:

Support Levels:

• Range support now Pivot 97.25 to 97.60
• 2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00
• Early 2022 Conslidation just below 96.00
• 95.00 Key Support

Resistance Levels:

• 8H MA 200 97.30
• 98.00 higher timeframe Pivot
• Current range Extreme resistance 98.50
• 100.00 Main resistance zone

US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

USD vs other Majors, September 24, 2025 - Source: TradingView.

You can spot on the chart how the September 17th FOMC meeting has led to a consequent huge performance in the US Dollar, particularly against the Kiwi (which showed badly surprising growth data).

European currencies are still holding tight (particularly the CHF and EUR) which comes amid their yearly uptrend and relative strengths. It will be interesting to see what can tilt the scales for these majors.

Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

CAD vs other Majors, September 24, 2025 - Source: TradingView.

The Loonie had gotten stronger after the most recent Bank of Canada meeting, Mean-reversion style, but another bad Canadian data (retail sales missed harshly) found some reasoning for its sellers to come back.

Overall, except for the USD, CHF and EUR, the CAD is still up slightly against other majors (so overall mid performance as can be said by Gen Z).

Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD

USDCAD 4H Chart, September 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The pair is still very rangebound overall but with the US Dollar gaining some intermediate strength, and Canadian data still far from good, it will be interesting to see if the current tight bull channel can manage to beat the overbought conditions that are getting reached.

Keep an eye on the better-looking US/Canadian trade talks, but also don't forget that more progress is still expected overall.

Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:

Resistance Levels

• 1.3890 to 1.39 resistance (currently testing)
• 1.39 handle
• 1.3925 Aug 22 highs
• 1.40 next resistance

Support Levels

• 1.3850 to 1.3860 Main pivot (preceding resistance)
• 1.38 Handle +/- 150 pips
• 1.3660 intermediate support
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support

US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week

US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar

The rest of this week is shaping up to be a busy one for North American markets, with a packed calendar for both the U.S. and Canada in the days ahead.

Thursday's session is a heavy one for the U.S. and may dictate market sentiment going into the weekend. The day will be front-loaded with a cluster of data releases at 8:30 a.m. ET, including:

• Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q2): This will be the final reading of the quarter's economic growth, with markets awaiting a confirmation of the prior reading of 3.3%.
• Durable Goods Orders (Aug): A key indicator of manufacturing activity and business investment.
• Initial Jobless Claims: The weekly reading will provide an up-to-the-minute look at the health of the labor market.

Throughout the day, markets will also be listening closely to speeches from a number of influential Fed members—including Goolsbee, Williams, Bowman, Barr, and Daly—for any hints on the Fed's next policy moves and their outlook on the economy. Later in the morning, at 10:00 a.m., the Existing Home Sales data for August will be released.

Friday's session will be just as important, with a few key releases that could drive trading for the end of the week.

• Canada: The session starts with the release of Canada's Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (Jul) at 8:30 a.m. ET.
• United States: At the same time, the U.S. will see the release of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for August. This is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, and the results will be closely monitored for signs of progress toward the Fed's 2% target.
• University of Michigan Data: The day will conclude with the release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sep) at 10:00 a.m. ET, which provides an important read on consumer confidence.

Safe Trades!

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