AUD/USD: Bullish reversal towards 0.6700 major resistance as Australia's monthly CPI rose to a 13-month high

[Redator]

The minor corrective pull-back of -2% seen in the AUD/USD ex-post FOMC from 17 September 2025 high of 0.6707 to 22 September 2025 low of 0.6575 has reached an inflection point to kick-start a potential fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence.

Fig. 1: 1-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies of 24 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

In today’s Asia session, the Australian dollar outperformed all major peers against the greenback. On a 1-day rolling basis as of 24 September 2025, the US dollar slipped -0.4% versus the AUD, outpacing the modest -0.1% intraday decline in the US Dollar Index (see Fig. 1).

The AUD’s intraday strength was underpinned by Australia’s latest CPI report, which showed August inflation accelerating to 3.0% y/y from 2.8% in July, beating expectations of 2.9%. This marks the highest reading since July 2024, a 13-month high.

Let’s now focus on the latest technical analysis factors of the AUD/USD to decipher its latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key levels to watch.

Fig. 2: AUD/USD minor trend as of 24 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 3: AUD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 24 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

Bullish bias above 0.6580 key short-term pivotal support for the AUD/USD for the next intermediate resistance to come in at 0.6655 before a retest on the major resistance of 0.6680/0.6700 (see Fig. 2).

Key elements

• The major resistance of the AUD/USD stands at 0.6700, which is defined by the upper boundary of the multi-month “Expanding Wedge” range configuration in place since 24 April 2025 (see Fig. 3).
• The 0.6580 key short-term pivotal support confluences with the rising 20-day moving average that managed to stall the prior three days of decline in the AUD/USD (see Fig. 2).
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the AUD/USD has staged a bullish momentum breakout from its former descending resistance (see Fig 2).
• The yield spread between Australia’s 2-year sovereign bond and its US Treasury counterpart narrowed from -0.21% on 23 September 2025 to -0.10% at the time of writing. This contraction in the US yield premium has added support to bullish momentum in AUD/USD (see Fig 2).

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

A break below 0.6580 key short-term support negates the bullish scenario on the AUD/USD to expose the 0.6555 medium-term pivotal support.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.