Gold's (XAU/USD) Bull Run Just Getting Started? A Look at What History Says

[Ben Graham]

Gold prices reached a new record high on Tuesday, helped by growing expectations of more US interest rate cuts. Investors were also waiting for a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to get more hints about future policy.

The price of spot gold went up 1% to $3,784.01 per ounce, after hitting a new record high of $3,790.82 earlier in the day.

This optimism was partly due to new Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who called for aggressive rate cuts on Monday. He argued that the Fed's current policy is too strict and could put jobs at risk. However, his view was challenged by three of his colleagues, who believe the central bank needs to remain cautious about inflation.

Miran's pro-rate cut stance increases the chances of more cuts, which is a positive sign for gold.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that investors believe there's a high chance of two more rate cuts of 0.25% each, one in October (90% chance) and another in December (73% chance).

The thing with Gold at the moment is how much longer can the rally possibly go? Now many investment banks and analysts have had to continuously update their price target this year. The problem is there is no historical data to look toward which could give us a sign of where the rally might end.

I have been looking over the past few weeks and have now found some interesting takeaways when looking at past bull rallies which mirror the current cycle.

Let us take a look.

Gold Bull Rallies From a Historical Context - 1970s, 2000s

Looking back at two periods historically paint an interesting picture. The first chart below looks at the period between September 1, 1976 to January 1, 1980 where Gold prices went on a parabolic rise from a low of $104/oz to a high of $875/oz. This equates to a gain of around 738.93% over a period of 1217 days (approximately 3 years and 4 months to complete this move).

Gold (XAU/USD) Monthly Chart

Source: TradingView

This was followed by a multi-year retracement where Gold prices struggled throughout the 1980 and 1990s.

The next historic bull rally started around September 1, 1999 (note the rally started again in September. Coincidence?) until September 1 2011. This period saw Gold prices benefit from the Global Financial crisis as well.

The rally took Gold prices from $253/oz to a high of $1920/oz which is around a 657.47% increase. The major difference between this rally and the one in the 1970s is the timeframe. This particular rally took a total of 4383 days which equates to around 12 years.

Take a look at the chart example below.

Gold (XAU/USD) Monthly Chart

Source: TradingView

Now looking at the current rally in Gold prices, and i am using the bottom in price from around January 4, 2016 when price hit a low of $1061/oz

Since then, Gold has been on a rally with gains totaling 257% over a period of 3529 days (just shy of 10 years) to reach a high of $3791/oz today.

Gold (XAU/USD) Monthly Chart

Source: TradingView

This is quite an impressive rally to say the least. However, it remains some way of the other two rallies historically, so are we looking at a more protracted bull run for Gold?

Firstly comparing historical price moves is something I am a firm believer in. There is of course no guarantee that a similar story will always play out as the past and that also stems from the factors which are affecting prices.

For example in the 1970s, the rally began a few short years after the end of the Bretton Woods system. While the rally in the 2000s was fueled by the global financial crisis, post 2008.

The current rally has been fueled by a combination of many things and one of the reasons why I could see further upside materializing in the current rally. We have strong central bank buying, geopolitical risk, recessionary fears and a potential multi-year Fed easing cycle all forming a perfect cocktail for Gold prices to push on higher.

Now short-term corrections and pullbacks could materialize before Gold moves higher but for this we will have to monitor the lower timeframes for any possible signs.

Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical standpoint, it is very difficult to pick a top at the moment. Not to mention that the lack of historical price action makes it near impossible.

I will personally be focusing on the whole numbers ahead of $3800, $3825, $3850 etc.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, September 23, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

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