EUR/USD Forecast for September 26, 2025

[Ben Graham]

EUR/USD

Yesterday's U.S. economic indicators came in better than expected. Q2 GDP was revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%, August durable goods orders increased by 2.9% versus forecasts of -0.3%, the core personal consumption expenditures price index for Q2 came in at 2.6% versus the 2.5% estimate, and even the trade balance improved to -$85.5 billion from -$103.6 billion, with a forecast of -$95.7 billion—this is the best figure in the past two years. The dollar index rose by 0.71%, the euro lost 71 pips, and broke through the daily timeframe support indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator settled in bearish territory. The price is approaching the target support at 1.1605. A firm move below this level will open the way to 1.1495.

This morning, the price is rising. The limit for a correction is the MACD line, which is approximately 1.1712. However, for the Marlin oscillator not to return to positive territory, any rise followed by a decline must happen quickly. Today, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) indices for August will be published. The forecast suggests a rise from 2.6% y/y to 2.7% y/y. If this materializes, volatility could pick up, likely resulting in a lower euro by the end of the day. Notably, the market probability of a Fed rate cut in October dropped from 97.4% to 93.0% in a day, and for December, fell from 73.0% to 59.8% (!). Yields on government bonds also rose across all maturities.

On the four-hour chart, the price is declining in a typical fashion with brief corrections. The bears have good conditions to close out the week in profit.

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