GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Today, Friday, during the European session, the GBP/JPY cross is attempting to recover from yesterday's losses, rising above the psychological level of 200.00 amid conflicting market forces. A decline in the U.S. dollar from a three-week high is providing support to the British pound sterling (GBP). Today's data from Japan showed that consumer price growth in Tokyo for September came in below expectations. Amid domestic political uncertainty and concerns over the economic consequences of U.S. tariffs, there is a growing likelihood that the Bank of Japan may postpone its planned interest rate hike. Nonetheless, investors are still pricing in the potential for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October — a factor that, combined with worsening risk sentiment in global markets, continues to support demand for safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen.

At the same time, pound buyers are holding back from aggressive moves amid concerns over the UK's fiscal policy ahead of the upcoming Autumn Budget in November. An additional factor limiting the pound's upside is the dovish commentary made on Wednesday by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, in which he hinted at a possible rate cut. Therefore, before opening aggressive long positions, it would be wise to wait for confirmation of sustained growth in the GBP/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are in positive territory, with the 9-day EMA above the 14-day EMA — confirming the pair's bullish momentum.

The nearest resistance for the GBP/JPY pair is located at 200.35. A breakout above this level would pave the way toward the key psychological level of 201.00, with a minor barrier at 200.75.

On the other hand, the pair found support at the 199.70 level. A move below this point could lead the price to pause at 199.40 support. Further decline would open the path toward the key 199.00 level — a drop below which would shift the outlook in favor of the bears.

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