Bitcoin Loses $110,000 Support But Risk Signal Says Market Is Safe – Details

[Redator]

Over the last week, Bitcoin (BTC) investors witnessed a heavy market decline as prices crashed by over 5%. This negative performance has moved Bitcoin below $110, 00, pushing the asset near price lows seen in August. 

As expected, there are also growing implications of this price drop as analysts speculate it could be either another correction or the start of a bearish market. Notably, the X analysis platform, Swissblock, has shared some important market insights that support the steadiness of the present bullish market.

Risk Off Signal Indicates No Danger As Bitcoin May Be Ready For Final Round

In an X post on September 26, Swissblock provides a vital on-chain analysis that suggests the Bitcoin bullish structure remains intact despite recent market losses. This insight is based on the risk-off signal, which indicates that Bitcoin has yet to enter a high-risk regime —a move that would instantly confirm a change in market trend.

As the market remains in a low-risk regime, Swissblock investors expect the bullish structure to start recovering and form a price bottom once market momentum begins to surge again. This recovery likely begins when Bitcoin reaches its immediate support level at $108,000.

 

In this case, Swissblock predicts a new leg higher to be largely driven by institutional demand. While September’s price performance has fared better than expected, ETF inflows reduced in the second half of the month, indicating the need for renewed market institutional interest. 

The need for heightened institutional demand is further intensified, considering that long-term Bitcoin holders continue to significantly reduce their holdings. Swissblock has described this activity as a “classic late-cycle behavior”, which points to the end of a market cycle. However, the lack of a high-risk signal negates this indicator at the moment and presents the opportunity for institutions to step in to mop up the growing supply.

Bitcoin Q4 Pump Loading?

In other news, crypto analyst Lark Davis has stated that Bitcoin’s net negative performance in September is a classic market pattern that usually results in a bullish price surge in Q4. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency declined by 8% in September 2023, followed by a 77% price rise in Q4. Likewise, prices dropped by 18% in September 2024, before surging by 101% in the following three months.

Over the past eight days, Davis notes that Bitcoin is down by 8% setting up what appears to be a typical “rektember” playbook. Therefore, investors may begin to position themselves for another significant price leap.  At press time, Bitcoin trades at $109,401 with a minor 0.11% gain in the past day. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume is down by 19.16% and valued at $60.52 billion.