A New Conflict Between the West and Iran?

[Redator]

Iran's nuclear program is once again raising concerns among Western countries. Several months ago, Donald Trump ordered an airstrike on Iran's underground nuclear facilities. The following day, the U.S. president announced the complete destruction of the three largest uranium enrichment sites, declaring Iran a non-nuclear state.

However, only a few days later, experts from relevant fields began to question Trump's statements. In short, experts believe that it was impossible to achieve full destruction of underground facilities, and in practice, such an operation is nearly unattainable. The strikes were targeted, while the facilities themselves cover a large underground area and are not visible from satellites. Moreover, the U.S. did not have precise information on the actual location of Iran's uranium stockpiles. It is possible that the strikes did hit nuclear facilities, but the scale of the damage cannot be reliably assessed.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump demanded that Iran hand over its entire stockpile of enriched uranium in exchange for relief from new UN sanctions. This time, however, the demand does not concern the complete lifting of all sanctions that have been in place against the country for more than 50 years. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the U.S. proposal would not be considered, as it is unacceptable to Tehran. On September 27, sanctions that had been lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal were reinstated.

The Iranian president said that Trump is putting forward completely unrealistic demands aimed at depriving the country of the ability to develop nuclear technologies for peaceful purposes. He also stated that if Western countries impose new sanctions, Iran will opt for retaliatory measures rather than compliance. It seems that the conflict may flare up again, despite Trump's earlier declarations about denuclearizing Iran and ending the threat it posed to the world.

Iran continues to insist that its uranium work is strictly for peaceful purposes, while the U.S. and European countries maintain accusations that Iran is secretly developing nuclear missiles and bombs. Neither side can provide conclusive evidence to support its position. As I expected, the conflict has not been resolved—it was merely put on hold for a few months.

EUR/USD Wave Pattern:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. The wave pattern still depends entirely on the news background tied to Trump's decisions, as well as the domestic and foreign policy of the new White House administration. The targets of the current trend section may extend as far as the 1.25 area. At present, the instrument is declining within corrective wave 4, while the overall upward wave structure remains valid. Accordingly, I am considering only long positions in the near term. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to 200.0% on the Fibonacci scale.

GBP/USD Wave Pattern:

The wave structure of GBP/USD has undergone a change in shape. We are still dealing with an upward impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave pattern is becoming less readable. If wave 4 assumes a complex three-wave form, the structure will normalize; however, even in this case, wave four will be several times more complicated and extended than wave 2. In my opinion, it is best to work from the 1.3341 level, which corresponds to 127.2% of the Fibonacci. Two failed attempts to break this level may indicate the market's readiness for new buying.

My Core Principles of Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often shift.
2. If there is no confidence in market developments, it is better not to enter.
3. One can never have 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Elliott Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

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