Markets Today: Gold Rallies 1.5% to Trade Above $3800/oz, US Government Shutdown in Focus & FTSE 100 Runs Into Resistance

[Ben Graham]

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Slips

Most Read: GBP/USD Forecast: Technical Breakdown & Key Levels Amidst Dollar Strength

Most stock markets in Asia rose on Monday, while the U.S. dollar eased. This investor reaction was triggered by the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown, which would lead to the delayed publication of the September jobs report and other key economic data.

China's blue-chip stocks added 0.7% ahead of the start of the Golden Week holidays on Wednesday. The broader MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares (excluding Japan) firmed 0.4%, bringing its monthly gain to almost 4%.

South Korean stocks bounced 1.5%, contributing to their strong 7.8% gain for September.

The exception was Japan's Nikkei index, which slipped 0.8% as investors focused on the upcoming weekend vote for the new leader of the ruling party, a decision that will have implications for Japan's future fiscal and monetary policy.

European Session - Healthcare and Tech Stocks Lead to Positive Open

European stock markets saw a slight increase on Monday, driven by gains in healthcare and technology company shares.

Investors were keeping a close watch on the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown, which would likely postpone the release of important economic data.

The main pan-European index, the STOXX 600, rose by 0.2%.

Healthcare stocks were among the biggest gainers, with Britain's GSK jumping 3.3% after the drugmaker announced that its CEO, Emma Walmsley, will step down and be replaced by Luke Miels in January.

The UK's AstraZeneca added 1.3% after stating it will keep its listing and headquarters in London but will now directly list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange, moving away from its current depository shares system.

Technology shares advanced by 0.6%, with chipmakers ASMI and BE Semiconductor both rising by over 1%. The industrial goods and services sector also performed well, gaining 0.4%.

On the FX front, the US dollar slightly weakened on Monday. The dollar index, which tracks its value against other major currencies, was down by 0.22% to 97.90, following a gain of 0.5% last week.

For more on the US Dollar Index (DXY), read US Dollar Index (DXY): How Sustainable is the Recent Rally? Morningstar Pattern Hints at Further Upside

The dollar fell against the Japanese yen by 0.6%. Meanwhile, the euro and the British pound both strengthened against the dollar, rising by 0.25% and 0.34%, respectively.

In other news, the Australian dollar rose by 0.35%, reaching $0.6571. Investors are currently looking ahead to the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision on Tuesday, where the central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged.

Currency Power Balance

Source: OANDA Labs

Oil prices fell on Monday due to two main reasons that signal an increase in global supply. First, Iraq's Kurdistan region started shipping crude oil again through Turkey over the weekend. Second, the group of major oil producers, OPEC+, plans to increase oil production again in November.

Specifically, Brent crude futures dropped by 43 cents (0.6%) to $69.70 a barrel, pulling back after reaching their highest price since July 31 on Friday. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also fell by 49 cents (0.8%) to $65.23 a barrel, giving back most of the gains it made on Friday.

Gold prices soared past the $3,800 an ounce mark for the first time ever on Monday. This major surge was fueled by rising market expectations that the US Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates, a prospect that weakened the US dollar and made the precious metal more attractive.

Furthermore, concerns over a potential US government shutdown encouraged investors to seek safety in gold, a traditional safe-haven asset. The price of spot gold jumped 1.4% to $3,812.49 per ounce, having peaked at $3,819.59 earlier in the trading session.

Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts

Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be a quiet one from a data perspective but we do have a host central bank speakers on the docket.

Later in the day, markets will focus on US pending homes index as well as Federal Reserve policymakers who are scheduled to speak. Markets will also hope for a resolution on a potential US government shutdown. The lack of a resolution could add to uncertainty and stoke further haven demand.

Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook – getting ready for September NFP week

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Chart of the Day - FTSE Index

From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 index finished last week on the front foot.

Gains have continued this morning but the index is currently in overbought territory and a short-term pullback could be on the cards

The 9357 handle remains key, with a break above this level potentially leading to further upside toward the 9500 level.

A pullback from here could find support at the swing high around 9280 before the 100-day MA at 9254 comes into focus.

FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, September 29. 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

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