Gold (XAU/USD) soars to fresh all-time highs in today's session - Potential targets and price forecast

[Redator]

Trading at $3825.41 per troy ounce in today’s session, up a remarkable +1.74%, gold (XAU/USD) has once again renewed all-time highs, further extending yearly gains.

As things stand, the yellow metal is on pace for its best yearly performance since 1979, up an astounding +45.75% year-to-date.

Let’s examine the market fundamentals alongside some likely price targets in the upcoming sessions.

Gold (XAU/USD): Key takeaways 29/09/2025

• Benefitting from a ‘perfect storm’ of macroeconomic factors, gold pricing has rallied to new highs in today’s session, and crucially, has broken above the key level of $3,800 for the first time in history
• While gold prices have been rising throughout 2025, a more dovish Federal Reserve has given a new lease of life to the current uptrend, alongside a general depreciation in the US dollar’s value this year
• General market risk aversion, owing to geopolitical tensions, US trade policy, and questions over sovereign debt, continues to contribute to the current rally in precious metal pricing

Read previous coverage: Gold (XAU/USD): In a bullish consolidation above US$3,688 despite a firmer US dollar

Dollar Strength Index (DXY) vs. Gold (XAU/USD) year-to-date. OANDA/TVC, TradingView, 29/09/2025

Gold renews highs, breaking above $3,800 for the first time in history

To say 2025 has been a good year for precious metals would be an understatement.

While both gold and silver are on track for their best yearly performance in quite some time, this trend shows little sign of stopping as we approach the final quarter of 2025.

To refresh your memory, here’s a quickfire round of three fundamental themes that have contributed to the current rally:

• Dovish Federal Reserve pivot: Despite a majority hawkish Fed for much of the year, gold continued its rally to new highs in 2025. More recently, however, a more dovish narrative, both from the reduction in the funds rate and commentary from Federal Reserve policymakers, has introduced a new tailwind to precious metal pricing, with lower interest rates directly benefitting non-yielding assets like gold. At the time of writing, markets overwhelmingly predict that the two remaining decisions of 2025 are likely to be in favour of further rate cuts:

CME FedWatch, 29/09/2025

• The fallout of dollar devaluation: Typically priced in USD, it seems intuitive that if the value of the dollar falls, precious metal prices will rise. While there is some truth to this, a broad-scale devaluation of the dollar, especially following concerns about sovereign debt, provides a larger catalyst to increasing gold prices than purely exchange rates alone. Ultimately, markets feel less comfortable this year using the dollar as a store of wealth than in years previous, opting for gold instead, and further compounding the effect of falling dollar pricing.

• Safe-haven inflows: While I use the term ‘safe-haven’ somewhat loosely, considering US equities have consistently pushed higher throughout 2025, a persistent feeling of economic uncertainty has made valuable contributions to the current rally in gold pricing. While recent rallies can be somewhat attributed to monetary policy expectations, demand for a secure store of wealth has steadily risen this year, with gold, silver, and the Swiss franc among the best-performing instruments of 2025 within their respective asset classes. This effect has been further amplified by considering that the safe-haven appeal of other major currencies, such as the dollar and the yen, is comparatively lower than it has been in recent memory.

Currency Power Balance, 4H, OANDA Global Markets, 29/09/2025

Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis 29/09/2025

As promised, let’s take a look at market technicals, starting with the daily, then moving on to the 4-hourly.

Gold (XAU/USD): Daily (D1) chart analysis (29/09/2025)

Gold (XAU/USD) D1, OANDA, TradingView, 29/09/2025

For gold bulls, current price action on the daily chart is nothing short of picture-perfect.

Blasting through multiple key levels throughout 2025, most significantly the $3,000 mark first achieved in early March, gold pricing currently trades in excess of $3,800 per troy ounce for the first time in history, growing ever closer to $4,000.

Having found a base of around $3,250, forming a slight upwards trending channel, price action in early September would break this period of consolidation and mark the start of the current rally, which, at least so far, shows little sign of exhaustion.

With that said, we are currently in ‘overbought’ territory according to the RSI and trade some distance from the trendline, suggesting that short-term retracements are possible if the uptrend wishes to continue.

As ever, data suggesting the Federal Reserve outlook is to become more dovish will likely support metal pricing further, with the opposite being true if the Fed is seen to become more hawkish ahead of their October decision.

In line with Fibonacci theory, here are some key levels to watch:

• Price target: 0% Fib - $3,934
• Support 1: 50% Fib: $3,788
• Support 2: 61.8% Fib: $3,753
• Support 3: 78.6% Fib: $3,704

Otherwise, and when considering current conditions, price would have to fall considerably and break support held around $3,643 to question the longevity of the current move to the upside.

Read more technical analysis from MarketPulse: US Oil (WTI) retreats after yet-another failed breakout

Gold (XAU/USD): 4-hourly (H4) chart analysis (29/09/2025)

Gold (XAU/USD) H4, OANDA, TradingView, 29/09/2025

With gold once again meeting all-time highs in today’s session, there is nothing above current price action to form a resistance to the current upside, while there is plenty to support to be found should price form a short-term correction.

• Support 1: $3,800 key psychological level
• Support 2: $3,787 major support on previous resistance turned support
• Support 3: $3,735 major support

While predicting further upside can be tricky, considering the quite literally uncharted territory, current readings from both the Stochastic and RSI oscillators suggest that a price is currently ‘overbought’, and due for a retracement towards the trendline.

Albeit unlikely, considering current conditions, if price falls below the third level of support, this could spell trouble for the current uptrend.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.