Markets Today: Gold Retreats from Fresh Highs, China Manufacturing PMI at 6 Months Highs, FTSE Retests Support

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Asia Market Wrap - Asian Equities Eye Six Straight Month of Gains

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Gold hit a new record high, moving past $3,865 an ounce. That jump lifted the stock of Asian metal makers, and a Chinese miner called Zijin Gold International jumped roughly 66 % when it first traded in Hong Kong.

The metal’s 47 % climb this year looks like the biggest yearly gain since 1979. Global trade fights, questions about America’s special role, and the likelihood of Fed rate cuts all seem to push investors to gold.

The precious metal did fall around $60 after the European open to trade around $3815/oz at the time of writing.

Looking at a snapshot of Asian stocks performance

Source: Gemini, LSEG

Meanwhile, China's blue-chip CSI300 Index rose by 0.2% and is set to record its fifth consecutive month of gains, which marks its longest such winning streak since October 2017.

September, which was seen as a notoriously bad month for stocks, has enjoyed stellar performance this time around. Major indexes have all put in gains this month with the S&P lagging the rest of the pack, with a gain of around 3%.

Source: LSEG

China PMI Hits Six-Month Highs

China's factory activity saw a notable improvement in September, as the RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2. This figure exceeded both the reading from August and analysts' expectations, reaching its highest level since March.

Factory production grew at the fastest pace in three months, and, for the first time in half a year, new orders from foreign customers increased. Overall new business expanded at the quickest rate since February. As a direct result, factories increased their purchasing activity at the fastest rate since last November.

Despite this growth, employment levels dropped due to concerns about costs. On the supply side, conditions improved, with the time it takes to get materials shortening for the first time in seven months. Regarding prices, the cost of raw materials (input costs) accelerated to a 10-month high, driven by more expensive metal.

However, due to intense competition, the prices companies charged for their finished products (selling prices) actually fell slightly.

Looking ahead, business confidence improved, with companies optimistic about increasing sales and production, believing they will be supported by new business development and government policies.

European Session - European Stocks Cautious

European stocks saw a slight dip on Tuesday as shares in major energy and healthcare companies lost value. Investors were also considering the potential effects of a US government shutdown, which would likely postpone the release of the key monthly jobs report.

The main pan-European index, the STOXX 600, slipped 0.2% but is still on track for its third straight monthly gain and a quarterly increase of over 2%.

The losses were led by oil and gas stocks, such as TotalEnergies and BP, which fell as oil prices declined, and by healthcare stocks, including Novo Nordisk and AstraZeneca.

This caution was fueled by comments from US Vice President JD Vance that a government shutdown was probable, which would delay crucial jobs data. In corporate news, Britain's online fashion retailer ASOS saw its shares plunge 11.4% after it warned its annual revenue would miss market expectations.

On the FX front, the US dollar index continued its decline today, falling by around 0.2%.

The Australian dollar saw a notable gain of 0.49% after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided, as anticipated, to keep interest rates steady. The RBA's accompanying comments suggested that inflation might be higher than forecasted for the third quarter and that the economic outlook remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, the euro was slightly lower and the British pound was also down. The Japanese yen weakened somewhat against the US dollar as investors digested the Bank of Japan's summary of its September policy meeting, which indicated that central bank members had debated the possibility of a near-term rate hike.

Currency Power Balance

Source: OANDA Labs

Oil prices dropped on Tuesday as market expectations for a supply surplus were reinforced by two key developments.

Firstly, the resumption of crude oil exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region via Turkey is adding supply to the market. Secondly, this comes ahead of another anticipated production increase by the group of major oil producers, OPEC+.

Specifically, Brent crude futures for November delivery fell by 84 cents (1.2%) to $67.13 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also dropped by 77 cents (1.2%) to trade at $62.68 a barrel.

For more in-depth Oil analysis, read US Oil (WTI) retreats after yet-another failed breakout

Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts

Looking at the economic calendar, the European session has brought a host of data releases thus far. German unemployment held stead, French inflation accelerated and German retail sales unexpectedly fell.

The rest of the session will be a bit more quieter with Central Bank speakers, German inflation and US CB consumer confidence in the US session. Markets will also be keeping an eye on a potential Government shutdown which could stoke volatility across markets if a deal isn't reached today.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 (UK100) Index

From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 index has pulled back and bounced off the support area at 9285.

The Index may face a challenge in keeping the recovery going as resistance lies ahead at 9324. (Most recent swing high).

Beyond that the FTSE 100 could revisit the recent high around 9357 before the 9500 handle comes into focus.

A pullback here first needs a break below support at 9285 before attention turns to the 100and 200-day MAs, resting at 9259 and 9238 respectively.

FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, September 30. 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

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