Japanese yen could be one of the best performers for the end of the year

[Redator]

The Japanese yen is stepping into the FX spotlight, battling the Australian dollar for top weekly performer — with the AUD lifted by the RBA’s hawkish pause and firm domestic data.

A rare sight in 2025, the yen is beginning to dominate broader currency performance, as fundamentals start to assemble in its favor.

Political momentum is shifting, with LDP contenders Takaichi and Koizumi pulling ahead in Friday’s LDP party leadership race and hinting at a possible renegotiation of Japan’s trade deal with the US.

Both stances, seen as less supportive of Abenomics and Ishibanomics’ era of ultra-low rates, fuel growing speculation that BoJ hikes may be closer than expected.

Economic data has been mixed for Japan — stronger GDP, firm retail sales and low unemployment point, even as some sectors still show weakness — inflation momentum building also gives some reasons for the BoJ to move.

Recent remarks from Noguchi and other officials underline that policy has entered a phase demanding “careful assessment,” as hawks and doves grow more divided.

With US rate differentials projected to narrow on the back of FOMC cuts, and the BoJ inching toward normalization, the yen’s case for strength into year-end looks interesting.

Let's explore USDJPY multi-timeframe charts (and a few other yen crosses) to see where the it stands.

Read More:

• Taking a step back – key long-term market charts and levels
• US JOLTS (Job Openings) beat expectations – Market reactions
• Silver (XAG/USD): Minor mean reversion decline in progress below US$47.17

USDJPY multi-timeframe analysis

Daily Chart

USDJPY Daily Chart, September 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Combined with a sudden u-turn in the USD, the yen started to price a more hawkish BoJ policy going forward forming the most consistent selloff in the pair since May 2025.

The three daily candles took prices from a failed test of the 150.00 handle (149.960 Monday highs) to two handles lower as we speak.

The 50-Day Moving average is coming at the mid-range pivot and will be one of the last level for USDJPY bulls to show up.

Daily momentum is turning negative, and when looking at these candles closing at their lows, it seems that this is the beginning of a move.

Of course, the 146.00 to 150.00 range holds until it breaks, but fundamentals could be pointing to a breakout

USDJPY 2H Chart and levels

USDJPY 2H Chart, September 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The pair is evolving in an intraday steep downward channel, with prices now becoming oversold.

With the tight price action, it would be surprising to see a sudden reversal higher (if it does, look for a breakout of the channel) – The overall bearish flows and daily outlook are strong so keep that in mind.

Month-end flows could also be coming into play – Watch the reactions at a potential break of the 50-Day MA (147.75).

Levels of interest for USDJPY trading:

Resistance Levels

• Top of channel and 4H MA 50 – 148.350
• May range extremes and past week highs from 148.70 to 149.50
• 150.00 psychological resistance
• 150.90 July highs

Support Levels

• Immediate pivot, mid-range and 50-day MA 147.80 to 148.00 (testing)
• 146.50 range support
• 145.00 psychological support
• 142.35 low of the May range, main support

Other yen crosses showing at key levels

GBPJPY now way below 200.00

GBPJPY 4H Chart, September 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Check out our most recent GBPJPY analysis (still valid for the long-term analysis!)

A gigantic weekly bearish divergence in CHFJPY

CHFJPY Weekly Chart, September 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.